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    Home»Regulation»$73 Billion Gamble with a $1 Million Cost
    Regulation

    $73 Billion Gamble with a $1 Million Cost

    Ethan CarterBy Ethan CarterOctober 6, 2025No Comments6 Mins Read
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    Saylor’s Bitcoin strategy

    Michael Saylor aims to transform corporate treasury management.

    Since August 2020, Saylor’s firm (formerly MicroStrategy, now known as Strategy) has emerged as a major public investor in Bitcoin (BTC).

    By September 2025, Strategy had acquired 640,031 BTC, equating to over $73 billion in value. The average purchase price was in the tens of thousands, leaving the company with a substantial unrealized gain at current market levels.

    For Saylor, Bitcoin serves as a safeguard against inflation and a non-depreciable reserve asset—strategically positioning the company for institutional investments he anticipates in the future.

    His proposition is intriguing: If Wall Street allocates even 10% of its assets to Bitcoin, prices could surge towards $1 million.

    Strategy — Bitcoin Holdings Over Time

    Did you know? MicroStrategy’s inaugural Bitcoin purchase as a corporate treasury asset occurred in August 2020, amounting to $250 million.

    Bitcoin as the optimal treasury asset

    Saylor’s approach is clear-cut yet unyielding: acquire Bitcoin, retain it indefinitely, and integrate it into the company’s core framework.

    Since 2020, Strategy has transformed surplus cash, debt funding, and equity offerings into a continuous stream of BTC acquisitions.

    The firm currently holds 640,031 BTC (about 3% of Bitcoin’s total supply) at an average cost of roughly $73,983 per coin. To establish this position, Strategy has utilized a blend of financing mechanisms: low- or no-coupon convertible notes, preferred shares, at-the-market stock sales, and other tools engineered to raise capital while minimizing shareholder dilution.

    Volatility is perceived not as a risk but as an opportunity—capitalizing on market dips, enduring fluctuations, and allowing Bitcoin’s scarcity to appreciate over time.

    Saylor’s accumulation strategy is influenced by his perspective on Bitcoin. Unlike cash, which he describes as a “melting ice cube” due to inflation’s diminishing effect on its value, Bitcoin has a capped supply of 21 million coins, maintained by algorithms and halving events that render its issuance increasingly limited.

    In contrast to gold—costly to store, transport and verify—Bitcoin is digital, borderless, and secured by a decentralized network, making it significantly more resistant to political interference.

    Additionally, Saylor views Bitcoin as a diversification asset. Its correlation with stocks and bonds has diminished, granting it hedge-like features in scenarios with high inflation or aggressive monetary easing from central banks.

    For him, these characteristics establish Bitcoin as the ideal treasury asset: scarce, portable, resilient, and tailored for the future.

    Did you know? By mid-2025, nearly 95% of all 21 million Bitcoin had been mined, leaving just over 1 million until the supply cap is reached.

    The path to $1 million: Saylor’s Bitcoin Las Vegas projection, explained

    Saylor’s most ambitious assertion is that Bitcoin could eventually soar to $1 million per coin.

    The calculations begin with institutional capital: Pension funds, insurers, mutual funds, and asset managers collectively oversee over $100 trillion. If merely 10% of that reservoir (around $10 trillion-$12 trillion) flows into Bitcoin, the effect on prices would be significant.

    When distributed over the fixed supply of 21 million coins, that demand alone would suggest a valuation close to $475,000 per BTC.

    However, Saylor contends that the actual supply is considerably smaller. Between 2.3 million and 3.7 million BTC are estimated to be permanently lost (with some estimates indicating an even higher figure). Additionally, “ancient” supply (coins inactive for seven years or more) alongside corporate holdings constitutes approximately another 24% of the total supply.

    Furthermore, over 72% of circulating Bitcoin is now deemed illiquid, held by long-term investors and entities with limited selling history. These factors result in only a small portion of Bitcoin being genuinely available on the market.

    Recalculating based on a liquid supply of 16 million-18 million BTC indicates that the same $10 trillion-$12 trillion allocation could raise the price range to $555,000-$750,000.

    With additional growth in institutional assets over time or allocations exceeding 10%, the $1 million mark becomes attainable.

    Nevertheless, Saylor emphasizes that this evolution won’t be instantaneous. Regulatory approvals, risk assessments, and liquidity constraints imply that institutional allocation will proceed gradually.

    Michael Saylor at Bitcoin 2025

    Did you know? One of the most significant cases of lost Bitcoin involved 8,000 BTC accidentally discarded in a landfill in Newport, Wales (a hard drive containing the private key was thrown away).

    How Strategy finances its Bitcoin purchases

    In recent years, Strategy has heavily relied on convertible debt, preferred stock, and innovative equity options to finance new BTC purchases.

    Convertible senior notes

    A key component involves issuing convertible senior notes, which can be exchanged for equity under certain conditions. These agreements often have very low or even zero interest (zero-coupon), minimizing cash expenses.

    In mid-2024, for instance, Strategy secured $800 million through a convertible note offering (approximately $786 million net), with a 35% conversion premium. The capital was utilized to acquire 11,931 BTC at an average price of $65,883. Another deal worth about $600 million followed soon after.

    These structures secure capital upfront while deferring potential dilution until conversion, providing the company with flexibility.

    Preferred stock and “stretch” offerings

    Beyond debt, Strategy has attracted investment through preferred stock offerings.

    Such (preferred issuances) often yield higher returns and impose fewer structural covenants than traditional debt. For example, Strategy recently introduced “Stretch” (STRC) preferred stock featuring a variable dividend beginning at around 9% per annum, with proceeds specifically marketed for Bitcoin purchases.

    In July 2025, Strategy enlarged a planned $500-million Stretch issuance to $2 billion, highlighting investor interest. Some insiders also participated in an offering that offered 11.75%, demonstrating a robust demand for yield-backed investment.

    Recent purchases

    The latest public acquisition occurred in September 2025 when Strategy purchased 196 BTC at an average cost of $113,048—totaling around $22 million.

    Similar to prior buys, this acquisition was financed through common stock sales and preferred stock issuance rather than operational cash or the sale of existing BTC.

    How convertible notes work for Bitcoin investments

    Risks, criticisms and what to watch next

    Strategy’s dominance as the largest corporate Bitcoin holder brings certain trade-offs.

    The company now resembles a leveraged Bitcoin fund, with its stock price largely mirroring Bitcoin’s fluctuations. Moreover, since it finances new BTC acquisitions through equity, convertibles, and preferred stock, existing shareholders face potential dilution risks.

    In addition to these vulnerabilities, analysts highlight:

    • Regulatory risk: Alterations in tax or accounting regulations may undermine the rationale for holding BTC.

    • Opportunity cost: Billions are invested in a single volatile asset.

    • Institutional demand uncertainty: The $1 million hypothesis depends on Wall Street actually allocating 10%.

    Nonetheless, the overarching effect is difficult to overlook. Strategy has played a vital role in legitimizing Bitcoin in corporate financial strategies and has accelerated development in custody services, exchange-traded funds (ETFs), and institutional over-the-counter markets.

    What to keep an eye on next:

    • Strategy’s future capital raises and funding models

    • Regulatory clarity around Bitcoin accounting and taxation

    • Indicators of large asset managers reallocating assets into Bitcoin.

    If these trends materialize, Saylor’s strategy could redefine corporate treasury practices and Bitcoin’s place in global finance.

    Billion Cost Gamble Million
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    Ethan Carter

      Ethan is a seasoned cryptocurrency writer with extensive experience contributing to leading U.S.-based blockchain and fintech publications. His work blends in-depth market analysis with accessible explanations, making complex crypto topics understandable for a broad audience. Over the years, he has covered Bitcoin, Ethereum, DeFi, NFTs, and emerging blockchain trends, always with a focus on accuracy and insight. Ethan's articles have appeared on major crypto portals, where his expertise in market trends and investment strategies has earned him a loyal readership.

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