Bitcoin has successfully reclaimed the $110,000 mark, yet momentum appears fragile as the market exhibits early signs of fatigue. Following recent volatility, BTC’s struggle to extend its gains has led to speculation about a potential deeper correction. Traders are intently focused on whether Bitcoin can maintain this critical level or if selling pressure will pull it lower in the upcoming sessions.
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Despite a cautious outlook, some analysts perceive the current consolidation as a beneficial reset within a broader bullish cycle. They argue that periods of stagnant price action often lay the groundwork for more sustainable rallies by reducing leverage and fortifying long-term support levels.
Further adding to this cautious optimism, leading analyst Maartunn shared new data indicating a slowdown in retail demand. His findings reveal that the 30-day Retail Demand Change has decreased to -5%, the lowest level since July. This trend implies that smaller investors are stepping back, which places the price direction increasingly in the hands of larger players and institutions.
Retail Capitulation And Macro Risks
The current pullback in retail demand might carry a bullish signal for Bitcoin. Traditionally, retail investors tend to act as contrary indicators—buying aggressively near cycle peaks and capitulating near market troughs. With the 30-day Retail Demand Change declining, smaller investors seem to be retracting just as Bitcoin stabilizes above the $110,000 level. This drop in retail engagement may indicate that weaker hands are being flushed out, positioning institutions and high-conviction holders for stronger accumulation.
Concurrently, broader macroeconomic risks complicate the landscape. The impending threat of a US government shutdown is raising concerns in risk assets, as investors contemplate its potential effects on liquidity, market confidence, and Federal Reserve policy direction. Historically, political deadlock and fiscal uncertainty contribute to increased volatility, often ensnaring Bitcoin in turbulent waters.
Nevertheless, uncertainty doesn’t always lead to downside. Occasionally, Bitcoin has thrived amid macro turbulence, attracting investors looking for alternative assets outside conventional financial systems. If retail investors remain sidelined while larger players accumulate, this dynamic could establish a foundation for a new bullish phase once macro conditions normalize.
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Bitcoin Price Dynamics: Struggling At $112K
Bitcoin is presently trading around $112,141, displaying signs of resilience after recently dipping below the $110,000 threshold. The chart indicates a short-term recovery, but BTC continues to confront robust resistance from both the 50-day and 100-day moving averages, located just above the current price range. These averages have functioned as dynamic barriers in recent weeks, limiting upward momentum and reinforcing the market’s corrective phase.
The rejection from the $123,217 resistance level established earlier in September underscores the ongoing challenge for bulls to sustain upward movements. Since that point, the structure has evolved into a lower-high formation, indicating waning momentum. Despite the recent bounce, failing to reclaim and maintain levels above $114,000–$115,000 could expose BTC to additional downside risks, with the 200-day moving average near $105,000 acting as the next pivotal support.
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At this juncture, Bitcoin’s short-term outlook remains cautious: bulls require a decisive break above $115,000 to regain momentum, while bears may seek deeper retracements should the $110,000 floor falter again. The next sessions will be critical in determining whether this rebound is sustainable or merely a temporary pause in the correction.
Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView
