Key Insights:
Bitcoin experienced its highest weekly close ever at $123,400.
Onchain metrics and futures data indicate continued bullish strength above $122,000.
Short-term predictions vary between a momentum advance or a mean reversion decline.
On Sunday, Bitcoin (BTC) closed the week at an all-time high of $123,500, marking a significant moment in its price discovery journey. As it consolidates near its previous peak of $125,800, three critical onchain and derivative metrics underscore the robustness and sustainability of the bullish trend.
Bulls Maintain Bitcoin’s Structural Momentum Around $123,000
The structural strength of Bitcoin remains firmly bullish. Researcher Axel Adler Jr. observed that BTC is positioned against the upper line of the 21-day “Donchian” channel ($125,200). Concurrently, the structure shift composite is at +0.73, indicating buyer control and moderated pullbacks. The ongoing struggle near the $125,000 ATH will likely influence whether the market rallies further or pauses for consolidation.
Futures Flow Index Indicates Bullish Pressure
With the Bitcoin futures flow index reading at 96%—well above its 30-day fair price of $117,500—it signals a classic “bullish mode.” Such conditions often lead to a temporary cooling or digestion phase, allowing overheated futures activity to stabilize before a continuation.
Moreover, the Profit/Loss Block score holds at a maximum of +3, indicating that most UTXOs are profitable, which sustains a strong risk appetite and consistent dip-buying behavior.
At the same time, the short-term holder MVRV ratio is nearing its +1σ band around $133,000, implying potential resistance as profit-taking pressure mounts. It’s crucial for the P/L momentum to stay above the 90th percentile to prevent divergence and fatigue in the trend.
Related: BTC October price breakout odds low: 5 things to know in Bitcoin this week
Short-Term Outlook: Momentum Grind or Mean Reversion for BTC?
Bitcoin’s short-term framework showcases two distinct scenarios following its record weekly close above $123,000.
The first scenario leans towards a momentum breakout, where “high prices remain higher.” In this context, Bitcoin could stabilize within a close range of $122,000 to $124,000, forming a high-timeframe base as volatility diminishes.
This behavior often precedes a gradual trend extension, promoting a prolonged price discovery phase as the market gradually ascends to new highs. Consistent high positioning would affirm this structure as a bullish continuation rather than a distribution.
Conversely, a mean reversion scenario remains possible. This would entail a corrective retest towards critical moving averages on the 4-hour chart, specifically the 50-, 100-, and 200-period exponential moving averages (EMAs), aligning with a liquidity pocket between $118,500 and $120,000.
A retreat into this range would reset short-term leverage, rebuild demand, and uphold structural integrity as long as $118,000 remains higher support.
Overall, the current market dynamics suggest consolidation within bullish strength. Whether through steady compression or a transient liquidity sweep, the general trend still leans upward unless momentum falters below the mid-$118,000 range.
Related: Bitcoin is outperforming top memecoins in 2025: Can DOGE, TRUMP recover in Q4?
This article does not constitute investment advice or recommendations. All investment and trading actions carry risks, and readers are advised to perform their own research before making any decisions.
