Summary:
Bitcoin achieved its highest weekly close at $123,400.
Onchain metrics and futures data indicate strong bullish control above $122,000.
Short-term projections are mixed between upward momentum and potential dips.
Bitcoin (BTC) marked its strongest weekly close at $123,500 on Sunday, indicating a new phase in price discovery. As it settled near its all-time high (ATH) of $125,800, three crucial onchain and derivative metrics underscored the health and sustainability of the bullish trend.
Bulls Maintain Control of Bitcoin’s Structure Near $123,000
Bitcoin’s structural momentum remains firmly bullish. Researcher Axel Adler Jr. pointed out that BTC’s price is near the upper limit of the 21-day “Donchian” channel ($125,200). The structure shift composite maintains a positive reading of +0.73, indicating buyer dominance and managed pullbacks. The ongoing contest around the $125,000 ATH could dictate whether the market pushes higher or pauses for consolidation.
Futures Flow Index Indicates Bullish Pressure
The Bitcoin futures flow index was at 96%, with the price significantly exceeding its 30-day fair value of $117,500, signaling a classic “bullish mode.” This scenario often anticipates a short cooling or stable phase as overheated futures activities normalize before continuing upwards.
Additionally, the Profit/Loss Block score remained high at +3, indicating that most UTXOs are generating profits, which supports strong risk appetite and consistent dip-buying behavior.
The short-term holder MVRV ratio is approaching the +1σ band near $133,000, indicating potential resistance as profit-taking pressure mounts. Maintaining P/L momentum above the 90th percentile will be essential to prevent divergence and trend fatigue.
Related: BTC October Price Breakout Odds Low: 5 Things to Know in Bitcoin This Week
Short-Term Outlooks: Momentum Grind or Mean Reversion for BTC?
Bitcoin’s short-term structure presents two distinct scenarios following its record weekly close above $123,000.
The first scenario supports a momentum-based breakout, where “high prices remain high.” In this case, Bitcoin might consolidate within a narrow range between $122,000 and $124,000, creating a high-timeframe base as volatility decreases.
This behavior typically precedes gradual trend expansion, permitting the market to continue its price discovery phase through a slow climb towards new highs. Sustained high positioning would validate this structure as a bullish continuation rather than distribution.
Alternatively, a mean reversion scenario remains possible. This would involve a corrective retest towards crucial moving averages on the 4-hour chart, with the 50-, 100-, and 200-period exponential moving averages (EMAs) aligning with a liquidity pocket between $118,500 and $120,000.
A pullback into this area could reset short-term leverage, regenerate demand, and uphold structural integrity as long as $118,000 is maintained as higher support.
In summary, the current market balance indicates consolidation within bullish strength. Whether through steady compression or a quick liquidity sweep, the overall trend bias remains upward unless momentum weakens below the mid-$118,000 range.
Related: Bitcoin is Outperforming Top Memecoins in 2025: Can DOGE, TRUMP Recover in Q4?
This article does not constitute investment advice. Every investment and trading action carries risk, and readers should conduct their own research before making decisions.
