News Background
- XRP fell by 4%, dropping from $2.85 to $2.75 in the 24 hours ending Sept. 1 at 02:00, moving within a $0.12 (4%) range.
- Market instability was worsened by institutional liquidation flows amounting to $1.9B since July, leading to concerns of cyclical exhaustion.
- Conversely, whales accumulated 340M XRP in the last two weeks, showcasing opposing actions between large holders and short-term liquidators.
- The seasonal nature of September and ongoing regulatory pressure in the U.S. increase caution: historically, crypto markets have struggled in September, while pending SEC actions leave institutions hesitant.
- On-chain data indicates increased activity on the XRP Ledger, with symmetrical-triangle patterns reminiscent of pre-breakout conditions in 2017. Liquidity maps indicate concentrations up to $4.00, which could enhance any upward move.
Price Action Summary
- The most significant decline occurred at 23:00 GMT on Aug. 31, when XRP dropped from $2.80 to $2.77 on 76.87M volume, nearly three times the daily average of 27.3M.
- Support was retested during the last hour (01:31–02:30 GMT, Sept. 1) as the price decreased from $2.77 to $2.75, with over 10M tokens traded per minute confirming forced liquidations.
- Earlier that day, XRP briefly reached $2.87 before pulling back, as institutional selling limited rallies above $2.80.
Technical Analysis
- Support: $2.75–$2.77 serves as the immediate base; below this, $2.50 and $2.00 are essential long-term levels.
- Resistance: Significant rejection at $2.80–$2.87 establishes the current ceiling; $3.30 is marked as the breakout point.
- Momentum: RSI has dipped into the mid-40s before stabilizing, indicating oversold conditions.
- MACD: A bearish divergence remains, but histogram compression may hint at a potential crossover if accumulation persists.
- Patterns: Symmetrical triangle and double-bottom formations align with a long-term cup-and-handle structure. Analysts note the upside potential to $5–$13 if resistance breaks and liquidity pockets above $4.00 are utilized.
- Volume: The 76.87M spike during the breakdown at $2.80 indicates distribution, yet the whale absorption of 340M tokens behind the scenes supports the notion of accumulation.
What Traders Are Watching
- Can $2.75 sustain as the new floor into early September trading?
- A close above $2.87 would shift bias toward a target of $3.30.
- The divergence between institutional selling ($1.9B since July) and whale accumulation (340M tokens in August) as a crucial market influencer.
- Will the customary September weakness overshadow bullish structural setups pointing toward $5–$13?
