Essential insights:
XRP is trading near the $2.75 support level, facing a potential 8–10% decline to $2.50.
Onchain URPD data shows a significant buyer cluster around $2.45–$2.55.
Liquidity compression and ETF developments suggest a possible expansion phase ahead.
XRP’s price action is positioned at a crucial point, with the altcoin consolidating at the base of a descending triangle, a typically bearish formation. It is currently around the $2.75 support, but ongoing selling pressure could push prices lower into the $2.65 to $2.45 range.
This potential movement could lead to another 8% to 10% drop, coinciding with a daily fair value (FVG) gap that overlaps with the 0.50–0.618 Fibonacci retracement levels. This area could attract liquidity and act as a launching point for a bullish recovery.
Onchain indicators supported this technical analysis. Glassnode’s Unrealized Price Distribution (URPD) for XRP uncovered a concentrated group of buyers between $2.45 and $2.55, indicating a robust cost basis for many holders in that range. This suggests that if prices return to this region, buyers might vigorously defend the level, setting the stage for a rebound.
XRP’s movement has mirrored its fractal pattern from Q1. The altcoin has tested the $2.65 mark twice, yet the historical framework suggests that a dip below this level into the liquid-heavy FVG remains possible before a sustainable rally emerges.
A noteworthy similarity between the current setup and the previous fractal is the pattern weakness leading into the weekend, followed by an FVG sweep at the start of the new week. Should this scenario play out, XRP might retest the $2.50 level by Monday.
Nevertheless, while the parallels are prominent, historical fractals don’t guarantee an exact replication of price movements, and the market could diverge from past behavior.
A decisive break above $2.90 could render the bearish formation invalid sooner, but the existing market weakness leans toward one final dip into the $2.50 area.
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XRP liquidity compression, ETF catalysts forecast volatility
Market researcher Sistine Research mentioned that XRP might be nearing an important expansion phase in the coming months. Their analysis indicated that XRP’s constrained price action over the past 10 weeks has tightened its order book and created larger gaps between levels.
XRP is currently in its third compression phase since the US elections in November 2024, and this phase is the most constricted to date, built on three consecutively higher price points. Such conditions have historically preceded sharp breakouts once liquidity is released.
Crypto analyst Pelin Ay added that spot market trends reveal an ongoing struggle between buyers and sellers. The 90-day spot taker CVD indicates that sellers have maintained dominance, despite some brief buyer strength earlier in 2025. For a sustained upward movement, a decisive volume shift toward buyers is necessary, which has yet to occur.
In the meantime, ETF developments remain critical. Franklin Templeton’s decision regarding the XRP ETF has been delayed until Nov. 14, while REX/Osprey’s XRPR made a notable debut with nearly $38 million in first-day trading volume. Analysts warn that some optimism may already be factored in, increasing the risk of “sell the news” reactions.
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This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
