The inaugural US spot exchange-traded fund (ETF) linked to XRP is set to commence trading today, with analysts anticipating it could unlock billions in institutional investments throughout its first year.
REX-Osprey, the entity launching the fund, has confirmed that it will trade under the ticker XRPR on the CBOE BZX Exchange. Additionally, the company plans to introduce a Dogecoin fund under the ticker DOJE.
Nonetheless, investor focus remains sharply on XRP.
This comes as no surprise, given the building excitement surrounding XRP-linked ETFs, with over a dozen similar applications still awaiting evaluation by the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).
Consequently, Nate Geraci, president of Nova Dius Wealth, labeled the XRP ETF as a “litmus test” to gauge whether investor enthusiasm can extend to this Ripple-related digital asset.
XRP ETF inflows may reach billions
In this report, CryptoSlate consulted various market experts who suggest that XRP-focused funds, including XRPR, could garner as much as $8 billion in new capital in their first year of trading.
Julio Moreno, head of research at CryptoQuant, projected that between 1% and 4% of XRP’s circulating supply might be absorbed by ETFs in the initial year—amounting to between 600 million and 2.4 billion tokens, valued at $1.8 to $7.2 billion based on current prices.
He argued that such levels would significantly enhance liquidity while positioning XRP as a more established investment option within institutional portfolios.
On the other hand, Jamie Elkaleh, Chief Marketing Officer at Bitget, was notably more optimistic, indicating to CryptoSlate that inflows might amount to between $4 billion and $8 billion in the first year. He mentioned that this momentum could elevate XRP’s price into the $4–$8 range by year’s end.
According to him, this mirrors the early successful trajectory of both Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs, which saw substantial flows upon launch.
Importantly, Bitcoin-focused assets attracted over $100 billion in their first year of trading, while Ethereum funds have recorded upwards of $10 billion in inflows within the last three months.
However, Elkaleh cautioned that ongoing regulatory delays or increased market volatility could potentially temper these forecasts.
Impact of ETF fees on capital flows
Conversely, analysts at Bitunix presented a scenario-specific forecast where fees play a crucial role in shaping inflows.
In their base scenario, the ETF could draw between $500 million and $1.5 billion in its debut month and $1–3 billion in the first quarter of trading.
In a pessimistic outlook—characterized by high fees or restricted distribution channels—inflows could dwindle to as low as $200–500 million initially. On the flip side, if fees remain minimal and brokerages provide broad access from the outset, inflows might surge to $3–5 billion within three months.
The analysts clarified that their estimates are informed by data from Bitcoin and Ethereum ETF launches, adjusted to account for XRP’s smaller market position and liquidity framework.
They also noted that XRP does not face the “legacy trust redemption overhang” that affected inflows for Bitcoin and Ethereum, indicating that its early figures could look cleaner.
Thus, if the XRP ETF captures even 2–6% of the circulating supply in the first quarter, it could trigger significant price increases for the digital token.
