Main Points:
XRP struggled to maintain $3.12 and encounters immediate resistance at $3.30.
Onchain analysis indicates significant accumulation within the $2.70 to $3.00 range.
Chart patterns suggest a possible 60%–85% rally into Q4 is still achievable.
XRP (XRP) experienced an 18% increase in early September, rising to $3.18 from $2.70. However, it couldn’t surpass the $3.20 threshold, facing rejection at a four-hour fair value gap on the sell side and retreating to test the $3 support level again.
After the Federal Reserve’s interest rate cut on Wednesday, XRP failed to establish a higher high above $3.18, leading to a continuation of short-term weakness, resulting in another retest of $3. The altcoin is grappling to stay above the 50-day simple moving average (SMA), increasing immediate selling pressure.
Futures trader DOM pointed out the failure of bulls to maintain the $3.12 level earlier this week, noted as a critical area for the push toward $3.30. The trader remarked:
“Bulls fell short at the $3.12 area earlier this week, which I’ve previously stated would be the challenge for a move to $3.30. This is still the focus, with all attention on that level turning into support (currently being contested). There’s no significant passive resistance in the order books until reaching that ~$3.30 target area.”
This positions $3.30 as immediate resistance, with bulls needing to regain $3.18 for any substantial upward movement.
Related: Chainlink experiences best performance since 2021 as cup-and-handle aims for $100 LINK
Why XRP’s bullish outlook remains intact
Despite short-term challenges, overall market indicators suggest ongoing bullish momentum for XRP. Onchain data reveals the Net Holder position change has been notably positive since August 22.
This change came after a period of decline between July and early August, which matched profit-taking at higher levels. Accumulation is particularly pronounced in the $2.70–$3 spectrum, indicating that investors are gearing up for upward movement rather than exiting.
Moreover, the Realized Profit/Loss Ratio highlighted a transition phase. July saw the peak of profit-taking within the cycle, resulting in a subsequent downturn. Since then, the ratio has leveled off but recently surged sharply, marking its most significant rise since November 2024.
This indicates that previous selling pressure has largely been absorbed, suggesting new groups of investors may be entering the market. Alongside the net holders’ accumulation, these signs represent a favorable long-term context.
XRP’s recurring market fractal adds another bullish foundation. The Q1 structure aligns with the current Q3 setup, with the $2.70 low coinciding with the Fibonacci golden pocket (0.5–0.618).
This fractal suggests XRP is adhering to its anticipated cycle pattern, paving the way for a potential 60–85% increase in Q4. Based on this hypothesis, XRP could achieve the $5.00-$5.50 range from its current level of $3.
Related: XRP price ‘preparing for’ breakout: Why the next target is $15
