Will bulls maintain levels above $122K?

After experiencing a phase of significant fluctuations, Bitcoin has stabilized within the range of $121,000 to $122,000.

This Bitcoin price forecast emerges as the market transitions into a consolidation phase following unprecedented ETF inflows at the end of September. Although there has been a slight slowdown, spot Bitcoin ETFs continue to attract considerable investment.

With macro concerns easing and persistent institutional demand, the overall market sentiment has turned cautiously optimistic. The outcome of the current consolidation—whether it shifts into a deeper pullback or a renewed upward movement—depends on the bulls’ ability to reclaim the $125K+ level in the upcoming days.

Current BTC price scenario

Bitcoin remains above previous key levels that were reclaimed earlier this month, fluctuating within a limited range of $120,000 to $125,000. Data from CoinDesk as of October 9, 2025, indicates that Bitcoin (BTC) is still trading around $121,200, reflecting a pause in momentum following its late-September surge driven by ETFs.

Despite minor liquidation events, the open interest in futures markets remains elevated, suggesting that traders are poised for possible shifts in direction. Additionally, spot Bitcoin ETFs are continuing to see significant inflows; in the week ending October 4, 2025, global crypto ETFs attracted approximately $5.95 billion in new capital, mainly from Bitcoin funds. With an AUM exceeding $95 billion, BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) exemplifies strong institutional involvement.

From a macroeconomic perspective, recent statements from central bankers have bolstered expectations for a global rate cut beginning in early 2026, which could alleviate liquidity constraints. Nevertheless, the $125K–$128K area persists as a formidable resistance zone, hindering upward momentum.

Bull case for BTC price

If Bitcoin can sustain its position above $125K, it may pave the way for targets between $130K and $135K, with renewed institutional demand potentially pushing it toward $140K. The continuous inflow into ETFs, especially from major asset managers, remains a key bullish driver. A recent BTC price forecast by Bitwise Asset Management suggests that Q4 ETF inflows might exceed previous quarterly records, driven by increasing interest from sovereign wealth and pension funds.

Moreover, the fundamental supply dynamics continue to support the bulls. Post-halving issuance is historically low, and institutional accumulation has absorbed much of the circulating supply. Data from CryptoQuant indicates that long-term holders are largely inactive in selling, reflecting confidence in further price appreciation. Overall, the outlook for Bitcoin is optimistic, supported by robust demand at current levels.

Bear case for BTC

A more substantial drop toward the $115K–$110K range could occur if the $120K support level is not upheld. Selling pressure may intensify if market sentiment deteriorates suddenly due to macroeconomic shocks, heightened regulatory scrutiny, or ETF withdrawals. There remains potential for volatility in either direction, as technical indicators like the RSI and MACD are moderately bullish but not excessively so. However, cascading liquidations could exacerbate downward movements if leveraged positions unwind rapidly.

Recent derivatives market data indicates that funding rates have stabilized from prior peaks, suggesting a slight easing in speculative long activity. This may reduce the immediate expectations for a breakout while serving as a stabilizing factor to mitigate sharp sell-offs.

BTC price prediction based on current levels

Bitcoin is currently in a consolidation phase between $120,000 and $125,000. A clear breakout above $125K would likely open the path toward $130K to $135K, with potential for a move to $140K if institutional inflows remain strong and macro conditions are favorable. Conversely, if momentum falters, a fall below $120K could trigger a decline toward $115K–$110K, possibly reaching deeper support levels.

Overall, the short-term outlook remains neutral to slightly bullish as Bitcoin stays stable within its range, buoyed by resilient underlying demand. A sustained move above $125,000 would affirm renewed bullish momentum and could set the stage for another upward phase.