Key takeaways:
Bitcoin is poised to finish September with a 4.50% increase, a pattern historically linked to significant Q4 rallies.
Onchain metrics indicate that spot demand is strengthening, primarily driven by US investors.
Bitcoin (BTC) is set to end September positively, up 4.50% at approximately $113,100 on the last trading day of the month. Historically, a bullish September has served as a strong indicator for the market, frequently leading to robust rallies in the year’s final quarter.
As per data, when Bitcoin concluded a bullish monthly candle in September years 2015, 2016, 2023, and 2024, Q4 yielded average returns exceeding 53%. October averaged 21.8%, November 10.8%, while December saw a decline of 3.2%, emphasizing October as the primary catalyst despite mixed year-end performance.
In those cases, Bitcoin achieved Q4 returns between 45% and 66%, frequently pushing BTC to new heights. If a similar trajectory unfolds, BTC could be targeting the $170,000 level by year-end based on current trends.
Seasonal data indicates that October generally serves as a launchpad, with increases extending into November, and sometimes December. This trend has been especially profitable in post-halving years, as capital inflows and market positioning propel Bitcoin into new price territory.
Cointelegraph recently shared insights from Bitcoin network economist Timothy Peterson, who highlighted that approximately 60% of Bitcoin’s annual performance typically occurs after October 3, with momentum often lingering into June. The analyst also pointed out a 50% chance of BTC hitting $200,000 by mid-2026, backed by recurring seasonality-driven bull cycles. Nonetheless, Peterson also added,
“This year, it is almost certain to be positive based on history and developing market conditions. However, most of the time, the big gains don’t start until about the third week.”
While past performance is not an indicator of future results, the tendency for BTC to rise following a bullish September strengthens optimistic forecasts for the upcoming months. With Bitcoin trading steadily above $110,000, the final quarter may once again prove critical for the asset.
Related: Did Bitcoin price bottom at $108K? 3 reasons that the worst is over
BTC spot activity indicators turn bullish
Onchain metrics are also reflecting an increasingly bullish outlook for Bitcoin. The Spot Taker CVD (Cumulative Volume Delta) indicator on a 90-day basis turned positive on Monday, marking its first green signal since July 14. This metric measures the cumulative difference between market buy and sell volumes, with a positive reading indicating a Taker Buy Dominant Phase where buying pressure exceeds selling activity.
Concurrently, the Coinbase premium index has indicated ongoing accumulation by US investors. Data indicated clustered green activity throughout the third quarter, signifying robust spot demand not observed since early July. The alignment of the Coinbase premium with the Spot Taker CVD shift reinforces the notion that buying momentum is intensifying in the market.
Related: Bitcoin gears up for ‘Uptober’ after $114K rally revives bulls
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
