Why Twenty One’s Initial Decline Indicates Decreasing Interest in BTC Companies

Key takeaways

• Twenty One Capital’s debut on the NYSE experienced a nearly 20% drop, indicating cautious sentiment among investors regarding Bitcoin-centric public listings.

• XXI traded close to its asset value, indicating the market did not factor in a significant premium over the firm’s Bitcoin assets.

• The decline reflects broader market influences, including Bitcoin volatility, waning interest in SPAC-backed listings, and diminishing mNAV premiums.

• The restrained response implies investors may now require Bitcoin-focused firms to demonstrate sustainable revenue models instead of relying solely on substantial BTC holdings.

Twenty One Capital, a notable Bitcoin-centric firm, saw a cautious reception on its NYSE debut, falling nearly 20% on its first trading day under ticker XXI.

This article examines the market’s response and what it may indicate about evolving investor preferences, dwindling mNAV premiums, and increased scrutiny of Bitcoin-supported equities.

What Twenty One Capital actually is

Twenty One Capital is an institutionally backed, Bitcoin-focused public company aspiring to become the largest publicly traded Bitcoin holder (BTC). The firm went public through a SPAC merger with Cantor Equity Partners and trades under the ticker XXI.

At launch, the company boasted a treasury of over 43,500 BTC, estimated at around $3.9 billion-$4.0 billion, ranking it among the largest corporate Bitcoin holders.

The firm is designed with a clear objective: to embed Bitcoin centrally in its strategy. Its founders and backers envision it as more than just a treasury entity. Jack Mallers, also the founder of Strike, has articulated that Twenty One aims to establish corporate frameworks for Bitcoin-aligned financial offerings.

This model aligns Twenty One with other digital asset treasury (DAT) firms, but with significant distinctions. Backers include Cantor Fitzgerald, a Federal Reserve primary dealer; Tether, the issuer of USDt (USDT) and a significant holder of US Treasuries; Bitfinex and SoftBank. These institutional affiliations position Twenty One as one of the best-supported Bitcoin-native companies to go public.

The company emerged amidst a broader trend of publicly listed firms adopting Bitcoin-centric strategies, partly inspired by the expansion model of Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy). Nevertheless, Twenty One’s aim isn’t merely to imitate this approach but rather to pursue revenue-led growth while retaining a substantial Bitcoin reserve.

The debut and the sharp price drop

Given the scale of its treasury and the reputation of its backers, many anticipated considerable interest surrounding Twenty One’s launch. However, its initial trading day on Dec. 9, 2025, yielded a different result. The stock dropped significantly despite the company’s substantial Bitcoin holdings and prominent institutional backing.

When shares of Cantor Equity Partners’ SPAC transitioned to XXI, the new stock initiated trading at $10.74, lower than the SPAC’s previous close of $14.27. After-hours trading saw a slight recovery. By the end of its first trading day, shares were down around 19.97%, finishing at $11.96.

This performance underscored a prevailing trend where newly listed crypto firms often trade below their pre-merger benchmarks. The situation led to the newly public equity being priced at a discount compared to its underlying cryptocurrency assets, suggesting that valuation dynamics for such stocks might be changing.

Investor caution and Twenty One’s NYSE slide

The steep decline in Twenty One Capital’s stock was not an isolated incident. It mirrored a convergence of three market elements in late 2025:

• Declining multiple-to-net-asset-value (mNAV) premium

• Ongoing volatility in cryptocurrency markets

• Diminished sentiment toward SPAC-driven public offerings.

Understanding the muted mNAV valuation

A clear indication of market caution was the fact that the stock did not trade at a significant premium to its underlying Bitcoin assets, typically assessed using the mNAV ratio.

Historically, Bitcoin treasury firms have enjoyed elevated mNAV premiums during past market cycles, often seen as indicators of investor confidence in management’s capacity to generate value beyond the tangible assets.

On the other hand, Twenty One Capital traded at or near its asset value, effectively ascribing little to no premium to its business strategies or management capabilities. This implied the market was valuing the stock largely as a direct and potentially volatile proxy for Bitcoin, rather than factoring in a distinct operating business premium.

Market volatility and SPAC sentiment

Twenty One Capital entered the market during a tumultuous time for both the cryptocurrency sector and SPAC listings. In the lead-up to the launch, cryptocurrencies experienced a selling trend. Bitcoin had plummeted over 28% since its October peak, fostering a risk-averse atmosphere where investors were hesitant to assign high valuations to crypto-linked stocks.

The merger with Cantor Equity Partners was a SPAC-laden pathway to going public. While the anticipation of the deal had previously driven the SPAC’s shares sharply higher, by late 2025, enthusiasm for high-profile crypto SPACs had diminished. A consistent record of post-merger underperformance has contributed to investor fatigue and skepticism, leading newly public companies to trade below their pre-merger valuations.

Did you know? The stock trading below the value of its Bitcoin treasury exemplifies a valuation paradox, where new public equities trade at a discount to the market value of their primary liquid assets.

Market shift: Demand for proven business models

Another factor contributing to investor caution may be the absence of a clear, proven, revenue-generating operational model at the time of the debut. This indicates some investors might be shifting away from pure “Bitcoin treasury” narratives, focusing more on differentiation and reliable cash flows.

Despite its large Bitcoin holdings, Twenty One Capital lacked a publicly detailed business plan or confirmed timeline during its debut. The launch also occurred amid increased scrutiny of the digital asset treasury company sector.

According to Reuters, analysts indicate it is becoming increasingly challenging for DATs to secure funding, asserting that companies “must demonstrate substantial differentiation” to validate their trading multiples.

The significant decrease in XXI’s share price may suggest that market perceptions are evolving. Some investors might be pivoting towards assessing a company’s capability to execute a sustainable business model in conjunction with its assets, with public markets increasingly favoring firms that can produce steady cash flows rather than those primarily reliant on Bitcoin holdings.