Key takeaways:
BNB is facing short-term correction risks but retains a robust bullish structure above the trendline.
Breakout patterns and on-chain optimism indicate upside targets of $1,250–$1,565 by year-end.
BNB (BNB) surged over 10% this weekend, outperforming a mostly stagnant crypto market that remained flat.
As momentum diverges from its peers and enters price discovery, the question arises: can the Binance-linked token climb even higher?
BNB faces “overbought” risks in September
BNB’s recent rally has pushed the relative strength index (RSI) on the four-hour chart into overbought territory, increasing the likelihood of a short-term pullback. The token has dropped 2.89% from its peak of $1,083.50 set earlier today.
A correction toward the 20-4H exponential moving average (20-4H EMA; the green wave) around $1,012 seems increasingly probable in the coming days, given the recent overbought readings. This short-term target aligns with the 0.236 Fib retracement.
BNB’s decline could further extend to the 50-4H EMA near $974, a level that has consistently provided strong trend support, should selling pressure intensify next week.
BNB price may reach $1,150 in October
According to analyst Gael Gallot, BNB sustaining above the $970 support level suggests healthy consolidation, attributing it to consistently rising trading volume and long positions in the derivatives market.
He remarked in his Sunday post:
“BNB surpassed the 1000 mark and reached a new high at 1074 before stabilizing near support at 987 to 990. Trading volume hit 3.28 billion during this move, and momentum remains strong with a long-short ratio of 17.71, indicating bullish positioning.”
The $970 price floor also acts as the lower trendline of BNB’s broader ascending channel pattern, as illustrated below.
Since June, each retest of the lower trendline has historically triggered rebounds of 20–35% towards the channel’s upper boundary.
A repetition of this pattern could see BNB surpass $1,150 in October, representing a 10% increase from current levels, even if prices retract towards $970 in the near term.
BNB’s year-end target is $1,250 or higher
Looking ahead, BNB is gearing up for a potential year-end rally, driven by its breakout from a long-term cup-and-handle pattern.
The price has crossed the 1.618 Fibonacci extension near $1,037, converting it into support. The upside targets are projected at $1,250, derived from the cup-and-handle breakout, and the 2.618 Fib level around $1,565, assuming momentum persists.
This scenario resembles BNB’s 2,650% rally after its ascending triangle breakout during 2020–2021.
Related: ‘Diamond hand’ investor turns $1K into $1M as BNB tops $1,000
BNB onchain data leans bullish
BNB’s Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) metric has returned to the optimism–anxiety zone, a level last observed during the 2020–2021 bull rally, which preceded a surge from under $50 to over $600.
The prevailing sentiment suggests that holders are adopting an optimistic stance, often indicating mid-cycle strength. With BNB’s technical and fundamental factors appearing strong, it may enter its most bullish phase of the cycle, despite potential short-term corrections.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
