What would ETH at $100,000 indicate?
If ETH reaches $100,000, Ethereum will evolve into a multitrillion-dollar ecosystem with significant ripple effects.
At a price of $100,000 per Ether (ETH), the current circulating supply of 121.1 million would suggest a market valuation of roughly $12.1 trillion. This is approximately 3.2 times Apple’s market value and nearly 44% of gold’s total estimated worth.
If about 36 million ETH remains staked (29.5% of the supply), this alone signifies $3.6 trillion in locked capital. At such a scale, every subsequent metric intensifies: from the security budget (through staking rewards) to the influence on the US dollar via fees and the collateral base underpinning decentralized finance (DeFi) and exchange-traded funds (ETFs).
This article examines not just the potential for ETH to reach $100,000, but also what managing an economy of such magnitude would entail in practical terms.
Did you know? VanEck made a notable call for ETH exceeding $100,000. On June 5, 2024, the SEC-regulated asset manager released a 2030 valuation forecast for Ether, estimating a bull-case price of $154,000 per ETH and a base case of $22,000.
What factors could drive ETH to $100,000?
Achieving six figures likely demands several reliable catalysts working together.
A consistent institutional demand: Spot ETH funds have demonstrated their ability to attract substantial investments. If allocations extend from crypto divisions to pensions, wealth managers, and retirement accounts, these creations create a steady demand that absorbs supply.
Onchain capital at scale: With stablecoins reaching record levels around $300 billion, and the adoption of tokenized US T-bill funds moving from trials to actual collateral, more liquidity and fees (and burn) flow through Ethereum and its rollups.
Scaling to maintain low costs while ETH retains value: The Dencun upgrade reduced costs for rollups to publish data through blob transactions, keeping user expenses on layer 2s (L2s) minimal. Importantly, rollups still settle in ETH, and blob-based fees are burned, allowing activity to scale without sidelining Ethereum and its value capture.
Scarcity dynamics: With over 36 million ETH staked (29% of the supply), the tradable float is further restricted. Restaking already serves as a significant capital layer, with the potential to lock in more liquidity. Coupled with ongoing fee burn, this means inflows begin to impact a diminishing float — establishing a classic reflexivity loop.
Macro considerations and expectations: Current street forecasts generally remain lower, with estimates ranging between $7,500 and $25,000 for the 2025-2028 period and a $22,000 base case by 2030. Achieving six figures would likely necessitate ideal conditions: hundreds of billions in ETF assets under management (AUM), several trillion dollars in onchain capital and tokenization, while Ethereum consistently offsets issuance during favorable liquidity cycles.
For ETH, a singular upgrade or a brief speculative surge won’t suffice. The real indicators emerge when steady trends align — such as consistent ETF inflows and the increasing adoption of stablecoins and tokenized funds on Ethereum and its L2s. Enhanced L2 throughput and burn contribute to this strength, alongside broader participation through staking and restaking.
ETH network economics at $100,000
With a six-figure price, even minimal percentage changes in protocol lead to significant dollar flows — which ultimately fund network security.
Ethereum’s proof-of-stake links issuance to the amount of ETH securing the network. As more ETH is staked, the reward rate per validator diminishes, permitting security to grow without excessive inflation. At $100,000 per ETH, the real emphasis will be on the USD value of these rewards.
Consider simple units.
The USD security budget equals ETH issued annually x ETH price. At $100,000 per ETH:
100,000 ETH issued yearly → $10 billion
300,000 ETH → $30 billion
1 million ETH → $100 billion.
These funds are supplemented by priority fees and maximal extractable value (MEV) generated from block production.
As onchain activity increases, these revenue sources also grow in USD terms, captivating more validators and gradually compressing percentage yields, even as total dollar payouts continue to escalate.
Conversely, Ethereum Improvement Proposal (EIP) 1559 burns the base fee (as well as, post-Dencun, blob fees) every block. Increased usage heightens the burn. Whether the net supply is inflationary or deflationary at six figures depends on the issuance versus burn balance (i.e., the extent of block space consumed by users on L1 and L2s).
Staking also influences liquidity. A larger staked share narrows the tradable float and channels more activity through liquid staking tokens (LSTs) and restaking layers. While this is capital-efficient, it also concentrates risk: operator dominance, correlated slashing, and exit-queue dynamics become increasingly critical when trillions are at stake.
Ultimately, what might seem like modest issuance in ETH terms translates to tens of billions in security expenses; a burn that appears negligible could offset a substantial portion. The interplay between direct staking, LSTs, and restaking emerges as a primary factor affecting both security and market liquidity.
Did you know? When we mention “USD security budget,” we are referring to the entire annual dollar value Ethereum utilizes to compensate validators for securing the network.
How Ethereum remains practical at $100,000
Users will only accept six-figure ETH if day-to-day transactions remain affordable and the network consistently captures value.
At $100,000, gas fees on L1 would convert to much higher USD costs. The Dencun upgrade acts as a pressure relief: Rollups disseminate blob data considerably cheaper, allowing routine activities to be conducted on L2 for mere cents, while rollups still settle to Ethereum and incur ETH expenses in the process.
The fee burn continues, but it has been redirected. L1 still incinerates the base fee, and blob fees also contribute to the burn, ensuring ETH is eliminated as usage amplifies.
High valuations are sustainable only if genuine users persist in transacting. Affordable L2s facilitate activity for both retail users and businesses; L1 settlements and blobs maintain ETH at the core and fuel the burn. This synergy fosters demand (infrastructure investments in ETH) while tightening supply (through burn) — establishing the essential feedback loop that supports a $100,000 valuation.
Affordable L2s indeed enhance user experience, whereas the ongoing value capture on L1/L2 (fees paid in ETH, continual burn) bolsters the asset. Without both elements, activity could shift or stagnate, undermining the demand a $100,000 ETH relies upon.
The sources of six-figure flows: ETFs, DeFi, stablecoins, collateral
At $100,000, it’s the buyers — and their strategies — that shape the market landscape, rather than just headlines.
ETFs as the foundational demand: Spot funds convert portfolio rebalancing and retirement contributions into predictable creations rather than hype-driven spikes. Most wrappers don’t stake, ensuring a healthy float remains available on exchanges for price discovery, even as protocol-level staking diminishes tradable supply. This equilibrium — stable net-buy from funds combined with sufficient liquidity for sellers — can transform sharp price increases into sustained upward trends.
DeFi’s systematic boost (and sharper risks): When prices escalate, collateral values rise, borrowing capacities increase, and protocol revenues surge via higher fees and MEV sharing. However, the risks escalate as well: Liquidation thresholds widen, risk parameters tighten, and oracles face heightened strain during rapid market movements.
Stablecoins as the transactional backbone: Stablecoins drive most everyday onchain transactions and transfers. As their supply and circulation expand across Ethereum and its rollups, market liquidity deepens while users continue to benefit from low L2 fees. Rollups settle in ETH for data posting and L1 settlements, keeping ETH central to transaction dynamics and ensuring robust demand even as most activity occurs above the base layer.
ETFs present a steady foundational demand, whereas stablecoins and DeFi generate ongoing economic interaction. Together, they bolster a six-figure valuation from both angles: consistent purchasing pressure from funds and a dynamic network that continuously consumes and burns ETH.
What could hinder the journey to $100,000: Second-order impacts and the resilience framework
High valuations amplify numerous factors: volatility, regulatory scrutiny, and operational vulnerabilities.
Accelerated cascades, thinner liquidity: With size comes heightened volatility and leverage. Liquidations can cascade rapidly across L2s and bridges, and thin liquidity can create sharper impacts.
Tighter regulatory environment: Anticipate closer scrutiny over staking, liquid staking, and restaking, ETF disclosures, and consumer applications. Mismanagement in these areas could impede flows or necessitate structural adjustments.
Centralization and interdependencies: Concentrated validators, single-operator sequencers, and shared custody/oracle dependencies can shift from manageable to systemic risks on a large scale.
UX division and elevated security standards: Routine activities are likely to concentrate on L2s, spurred by account abstraction and sponsored gas, while L1 remains for high-value settlements. Greater dollar rewards invariably attract more skilled adversaries, making client diversity, MEV market design, and reliable fault or escape proofs essential.
The sustainability of $100,000 hinges on operator variety, efficient exit strategies, prudent risk parameters, robust clients, and dependable oracles — these are critical indicators that significant allocators monitor. When these signals align with ETF inflows and consistent onchain growth, the prospect of $100,000 transitions from “maybe” to a distinct possibility.
