What is quantum technology?
Quantum technology is capable of processing vast amounts of data and tackling intricate issues in mere seconds instead of decades.
Interestingly, quantum technology emerged in the early 20th century, originating from quantum mechanics, a field of physics that studies the behavior of matter and energy at extremely small scales, such as atoms and subatomic particles.
In practical applications, it is utilized in modern inventions like transistors, lasers, MRI machines, and quantum computers, which are claimed to be 300,000 times faster and more powerful than current technologies. Google’s latest quantum chip, Willow, drastically reduces computation times, potentially equipping hackers with the means to breach the algorithms underpinning Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies.
Quantum computers pose a risk to Bitcoin’s cryptographic systems, particularly the Elliptic Curve Digital Signature Algorithm (ECDSA). Experts like Adam Back and Michael Saylor maintain that quantum threats to Bitcoin are not an immediate concern, as such applications necessitate advanced quantum hardware, which might take years to develop.
While the research and development of quantum computers is advancing rapidly, is Bitcoin quantum-safe at this point? Not yet, but developers are actively working to enhance the network to mitigate potential quantum threats, including the risk of breaking encryption.
Although acknowledging these risks is crucial, it’s equally important to clarify that they are not imminent threats at this stage.
Did you know? Albert Einstein significantly advanced quantum technology. He laid the groundwork for quantum mechanics through his research on the photoelectric effect, which unveiled the composition of light. He received a Nobel Prize for this work, not for his relativity theory, as commonly believed.
How quantum tech could break Bitcoin wallets
Quantum computing could greatly influence Bitcoin, primarily by jeopardizing the cryptography that secures its network.
The intersection of quantum computing and Bitcoin (BTC) has generated considerable discussion, and rightfully so. It has the potential to disrupt the network and compromise Bitcoin wallets by exploiting weaknesses in the asymmetric cryptography protecting them. The ECDSA, which Bitcoin employs, is particularly susceptible to quantum computer attacks.
Bitcoin wallets depend on ECDSA to create a pair of private and public keys, with security hinging on the challenging elliptic curve discrete logarithm problem (ECDLP), unsolvable by classical computers.
The real concern is that quantum computers could crack Bitcoin private keys, as losing these results in losing access to one’s funds. When generating a private-public key pair, the public key is designated for verification while the private key is used for signing.
In 1994, mathematician Peter Shor introduced the Shor quantum algorithm, capable of undermining the perceived security of asymmetric cryptography algorithms. Existing algorithms necessitate considerable time, money, and resources to derive a private key from a public key, but the Shor algorithm expedites this process.
This indicates that anyone—be it an individual or organization—with a powerful quantum computer could potentially employ the Shor algorithm to derive a private key from a public one, creating false digital signatures for transactions.
Bitcoin and quantum security risk
You’ve learned that quantum technology could jeopardize Bitcoin wallets by exposing private keys. This risk intensifies as quantum computers improve, notably for wallets associated with older addresses or reused public keys, making it feasible to reverse-engineer private keys from these compromised public keys, threatening the security of Bitcoin holders.
By 2025, quantum computers are forecasted to be decades away from breaking ECDSA. Even Michael Saylor deems such concerns overstated. While Bitcoin users can feel relatively secure at present, they should remain cognizant of best practices to safeguard against potential future quantum threats.
Here’s a succinct overview of the connection between quantum computing and Bitcoin:
Did you know? The advancement in quantum computing is measured by the number of qubits (the basic units of information) in one processor. Currently, the most powerful quantum computers handle between 100 and 1,000 qubits. Estimates for the number of qubits necessary to breach Bitcoin’s security range from 13 million to over 300 million.
Can quantum computers recover lost Bitcoin?
Analysts estimate that between 2.3 million and 3.7 million Bitcoin is permanently lost, accounting for about 11%-18% of the fixed total supply of 21 million.
What occurs with lost Bitcoin when quantum recovery technologies allow dormant wallets to be accessed? Consider Satoshi Nakamoto’s coins, estimated to be 1 million. If a quantum computer breaks into their wallet and releases the coins back into circulation, significant market fluctuations could follow.
Quantum computers could potentially recover lost Bitcoin by decrypting the cryptographic keys safeguarding those wallets, often belonging to older, hard-to-reach private keys, making them appealing targets.
These are likely among the oldest Bitcoin address versions, utilizing pay-to-public-key (P2PK) formats, which have not been revised or reused. Consequently, these addresses remain vulnerable, with no one alive or capable of updating them. The growth of quantum computing might expose these weaknesses, unlocking dormant wallets.
In May 2025, global asset management firm BlackRock cautioned in its iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) filing that quantum computing constitutes a significant risk to Bitcoin’s long-term security by compromising current cryptographic defenses.
Ethical and economic implications
Recovering lost Bitcoin may entail various economic and ethical considerations. Reintroducing those coins into circulation could undermine Bitcoin’s scarcity, subsequently affecting its market value.
Discussions are already underway regarding the optimal approaches to preserving Bitcoin’s economic and ethical integrity. Some, including seasoned Bitcoin expert Jameson Lopp, advocate for the complete destruction of those coins to safeguard the network, while others propose their redistribution for wealth balance.
What can you do to protect your Bitcoin?
Reducing public key exposure is vital for safeguarding your Bitcoin. Simple strategies can offer users increased peace of mind.
Protective measures for your Bitcoin should always be a priority, irrespective of the quantum threats. Fraud remains a persistent concern in the crypto domain. Phishing continues to be among the most prevalent scams, including a newly identified zero-value scam, where a fraudulent address is appended to the transaction history of a targeted wallet.
When the owner initiates a transaction, they might unwittingly select an address from their history, including the fake one, without needing access to a private key.
Approximately 25% of all Bitcoin is stored in addresses utilizing pay-to-public-key (P2PK) or reused pay-to-public-key-hash (P2PKH). These techniques frequently expose the public key linked to a user’s address. This presents a clearer vulnerability to quantum computing, as the exposed public keys are more susceptible to quantum attacks via the Shor algorithm.
This can be mitigated by avoiding address reuse. Consider joining a platform that automatically changes your wallet address with every transaction. Reusing an address may reveal your public key during a transaction.
The optimal approach is to generate new addresses for every transaction and utilize wallets supporting Taproot and SegWit. Exercise caution when sending transactions to your wallet addresses; these wallets provide addresses with enhanced security.
Address poisoning is another common phishing strategy that has led to significant user losses. This occurs when malicious actors send minor transactions from wallet addresses resembling legitimate ones, tricking victims into copying incorrect addresses for future transactions.
Bitcoin’s quantum resistance: Ongoing research and safety measures
Bitcoin currently demonstrates resilience against quantum threats, with ongoing investigations into quantum-resistant wallets and protocols like QRAMP to safeguard its future, while experts assess how quantum technology could bolster the network.
Bitcoin’s decentralized and open-source nature enhances its adaptability, and ongoing research into quantum-resistant Bitcoin wallets suggests that its coins face no immediate risk.
Users should adhere to best practices, like refraining from address reuse, to remain secure until quantum-proof cryptocurrencies and wallets become fully developed and available.
Among initial initiatives aimed at shielding Bitcoin from quantum threats, Bitcoin developer Agustin Cruz proposed a quantum-resistant asset mapping protocol (QRAMP) in early 2025. This protocol aims to protect Bitcoin from quantum vulnerabilities while facilitating cross-chain interactions without jeopardizing custody or supply limits.
Moreover, experts are working on robust quantum-resistant cryptographic techniques that could enhance Bitcoin in numerous ways, improving scalability, creating unhackable wallets, and fortifying cryptography. These advancements will ensure the Bitcoin network continues to thrive in a quantum-enabled environment.
