Shayne Coplan, the founder of prediction market Polymarket, is back in the spotlight as prediction markets transition from regulatory restrictions in the United States to legitimate financial markets with institutional support.
Bloomberg recognized Coplan as one of the world’s billionaires after a $2 billion investment in Polymarket from the parent company of the New York Stock Exchange, Intercontinental Exchange (ICE).
Coplan founded the platform in 2020 at the age of 21 after leaving New York University. He frequently worked on the platform from the bathroom of his New York apartment, he noted.
Prior to launching Polymarket, Coplan was working on a crypto staking platform called Union, which had attracted venture capital funding, and had also been involved in several smaller crypto projects while still in school. He shared in an X post:
“At the onset of the pandemic, I literally had nothing to lose: 21, running out of money, 2.5 years since I dropped out, and nothing to show for it, but I knew we were entering an era where finding truth would matter more than ever.”
The idea for Polymarket was inspired by economist Robin Hanson, who has been a pioneer in academic research on prediction markets, Coplan mentioned.
The investment positions Coplan as the youngest self-made billionaire noted by the Bloomberg Billionaires Index.
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Polymarket defies expectations to reach a $9 billion valuation
After the $2 billion ICE investment, Polymarket boasts a valuation of $9 billion, a remarkable shift from earlier years when it was seen as a risky venture amid regulatory scrutiny of the crypto sector in the United States.
In 2022, the platform was prohibited for US users after the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) fined Polymarket $1.4 million for operating as an unregulated exchange.
Prediction markets, including Polymarket and competitor Kalshi, gained media attention during the 2024 US presidential election.
Polymarket traders accurately predicted the election outcome favoring US President Donald Trump about a month before the vote, with his odds of victory peaking at 67%.
In November 2024, the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) raided Coplan’s apartment following the 2024 US elections, suspecting that the prediction market was catering to US customers.
Polymarket representatives described the FBI investigation and the raid as “politically motivated” in a statement to Cointelegraph at that time.
“The incumbents should reflect and realize that adopting a more pro-business, pro-startup stance could have altered their outcome this election,” Coplan remarked regarding the FBI raid.
Polymarket’s prospects improved after the regulatory changes in the US following Donald Trump’s election. The company received CFTC approval to re-serve US customers in September 2025.
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