Key takeaways:
Bitcoin surpassed $90,000, but options data indicates traders are uneasy about potential downside risks.
Outflows from Bitcoin spot ETFs and low demand for leverage imply investors are cautious regarding short-term profits.
Economic uncertainty limits Bitcoin price recovery
Bitcoin (BTC) climbed above $90,000 on Saturday, leading traders to wonder if it has sufficient momentum to reach $95,000 for the first time in seven weeks.
Despite the S&P 500 being just 1.3% shy of its all-time high, investors expressed concerns over deteriorating economic conditions, particularly following disappointing sales reports from electric vehicle manufacturer Tesla (TSLA US).
The Nasdaq index futures struggled to reclaim the 26,000 mark, as the sector grapples with optimism regarding artificial intelligence amid concerns over sluggish US job market data.
According to Bloomberg, Tesla’s total vehicle deliveries dipped to 418,227 units in the fourth quarter, representing a 15% decline from 495,570 a year prior. Tesla’s stock fell by 2.5% on Friday, remaining 12.2% below its peak value.
Conversely, a ray of optimism emerged from China as shares of Baidu (BIDU US) surged by 15% after the company filed for an IPO with the Hong Kong stock exchange to spin off its AI chip unit, Kunlunxin.
While the tech sector has driven Nasdaq’s 20% gains in 2025, traders are wary of overstretched valuations.
BTC reaches multi-week highs, but leverage remains tepid
Demand for leveraged BTC bullish positions showed little change on Saturday, even as Bitcoin hit its highest levels since December 12.
Over the past 20 days, Bitcoin’s price has fluctuated within a tight 6% range, leading to investor anxiety as the breakthrough above resistance remains elusive.
On Friday, the Bitcoin futures basis rate remained below the neutral threshold, indicating a lack of confidence among bullish traders.
The current 4% annualized premium over spot markets highlights traders’ worries that US import tariffs may impact the wider economy. However, the latest re-examination of the $85,000 level on December 19 did not spark a broad bearish sentiment.
The diminished demand for leveraged bullish Bitcoin positions may also be attributed to selling pressure within Bitcoin spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs), which have recorded over $900 million in net outflows since December 15.
In contrast, gold ETFs have seen seven consecutive weeks of net inflows, which could indicate a lack of confidence in US economic growth amidst escalating concerns over fiscal conditions.
Skepticism persists around $90,000, yet panic is not evident
To assess whether Bitcoin whales and market makers have become bullish following the 3.2% uptick over two days, one must investigate activity in the BTC options market.
On Saturday, Bitcoin put (sell) options traded at a premium, as institutional traders demanded higher compensation for exposure to downside risk.
While the indicator remains within the neutral -6% to +6% range, it has yet to indicate a bullish trend, which would be indicated by an inverse put-call skew. BTC derivatives suggest an ongoing skepticism around the $90,000 mark, although excessive fear is not apparent.
Related: No, whales are not accumulating massive amounts of Bitcoin: CryptoQuant
Inflation continues to be a significant concern as the US government prepares to introduce tax incentives to invigorate the economy. Bond futures markets are currently factoring in just a 16% chance that interest rates will decrease to 3.25% or lower by April, based on the CME FedWatch Tool.
At this stage, Bitcoin derivatives traders do not foresee further price increases, with confidence expected to rebuild gradually after a month-long consolidation around $89,000.
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