An essential driver for the cryptocurrency market was anticipated to be the U.S. non-farm payrolls data set to release on Friday. However, this is now uncertain due to the ongoing government shutdown, which is currently in its fourth day.
Summary
- The crypto market was poised to respond to the forthcoming U.S. non-farm payrolls data.
- Several major tokens, including Zora, Optimism, and EigenLayer, are expected to undergo token unlocks.
- This week also marks the beginning of the fourth quarter, traditionally the strongest for cryptocurrencies.
Economists surveyed by Reuters predict that the report will reveal an addition of 39,000 jobs in September, an increase from 22,000 in August. The unemployment rate is anticipated to remain unchanged at 4.3%.
This labor market assessment is crucial for the cryptocurrency landscape, potentially impacting the Federal Reserve’s next interest rate decision. A weaker jobs report could be seen as positive for cryptocurrencies, boosting the chances of a rate cut at the Fed’s upcoming meeting.
Multiple Federal Reserve officials—including Raphael Bostic, Jerome Powell, and Austan Goolsbee—have recently shown restraint regarding early rate cuts, citing persistent inflation concerns. Thus, a disappointing jobs report would enhance the argument for easing.
Significant Token Unlocks
Market observers are also focused on several key token unlocks occurring this week. Data from DeFi Llama indicates that unlocks amount to roughly $280 million.
- Zora, a notable token on the Base blockchain: $9.35 million in tokens, representing 4.6% of its circulating supply.
- Sui: Tokens worth $174 million, accounting for 1.5% of its float.
- Other prominent unlocks include tokens from EigenLayer, Immutable X, Orderly, and Optimism.
Beginning of Q4 — Historically Positive
Data from CoinGlass reveals that Bitcoin’s average return in Q4 since 2013 is 85%, with a median return of 52%. Ethereum, since 2016, has recorded an average Q4 return of 23%.
Considering the recent market adjustments, this seasonal trend may indicate a potential rebound.
Looking forward, the fourth quarter presents numerous key events that could elevate prices. These include
Collectively, these catalysts pave the way for a potentially robust conclusion to the year in the cryptocurrency market.
