Key takeaways:
Institutional interest and ETF investments have successfully absorbed the redistributed BTC from Mt. Gox.
Predicted rate cuts, optimistic trade negotiations, and increasing global liquidity bolster Bitcoin’s trajectory towards $150,000–$500,000.
Mt. Gox, an inactive crypto exchange, has delayed creditor repayments by one year and retains control of approximately $4 billion in Bitcoin (BTC) as of Wednesday.
Is this recent delay in repayments a negative or positive signal for Bitcoin’s future price?
Bitcoin remains resilient despite previous Mt. Gox distributions
The Mt. Gox trust has allocated nearly 75% of its Bitcoin assets to creditors since mid-2024, decreasing its BTC reserves from 142,000 to 34,690, per data from Arkham Intelligence.
Over $12 billion in Bitcoin has been distributed thus far, yet it has not deterred bearish sentiment from driving prices down.
Since repayments commenced, BTC has risen by 85%, with several analysts projecting it could reach $150,000 by year’s end.
This indicates buyers have effectively absorbed any selling pressure from Mt. Gox repayments, showcasing strong market depth amidst consistent demand from US spot Bitcoin ETFs and corporations gradually increasing BTC in their reserves.
As an example, Nasdaq-listed MicroStrategy (MSTR) has acquired 414,477 BTC (~$47 billion) since mid-July, according to data from Bitbo.IO. This amount is about 3.9 times the Bitcoin that Mt. Gox has redistributed so far.
Thus, the current Bitcoin market, bolstered by ETFs, sovereign interest, and corporate holdings, is more capable of absorbing significant BTC volumes compared to the cycles of 2017 or 2021.
The postponement of Mt. Gox repayments until October 2026 means around $4 billion in Bitcoin will be withheld from the market, decreasing the likelihood of an abrupt market crash.
Macro factors favor a rise in BTC price
Bitcoin proponents anticipate long-term price growth, highlighting macroeconomic factors that could alleviate any adverse effects from Mt. Gox’s Bitcoin distribution.
Firstly, the markets are nearly fully forecasting multiple rate cuts from the Federal Reserve, heralding the beginning of a loosening cycle. Reduced borrowing costs ease pressures on speculative assets, providing Bitcoin freedom to advance towards $150,000 in the forthcoming months.
Progress towards a US–China trade agreement has further enhanced global risk sentiment, alleviating one of the major concerns affecting both equities and crypto.
The global M2 money supply is ramping up at its quickest rate since 2020.
Analysts observe that if Bitcoin mirrors the liquidity-driven trajectory seen during the post-COVID expansion, it could potentially surge to $500,000 by 2026, echoing its most robust historical uptrends.
This article does not provide investment advice or recommendations. All investment and trading decisions carry risk, and readers should perform their own research before making a decision.
