Hyperliquid’s native token is approaching a critical “Sword of Damocles” moment, with $500 million in monthly unlocks starting on Nov. 29, according to research from Arthur Hayes’ family office fund, Maelstrom.
The Hyperliquid (HYPE) token will undergo its “first true test” on Nov. 29 as the 24-month vesting schedule activates, Maelstrom announced on Monday.
This vesting schedule will release $11.9 billion worth of Hyperliquid (HYPE) tokens over 24 months for team members, potentially introducing significant selling pressure. Current buybacks could only cover about 17% of the monthly supply, leaving approximately $410 million in potential excess, according to Maelstrom researcher Lukas Ruppert.
“Imagine being a Hyperliquid developer. After years of hard work, a life-changing amount of tokens is about to vest; it’s just one click away,” Ruppert noted.
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The monthly unlock poses a considerable risk to Hyperliquid’s price stability. The increasing number of digital asset treasuries (DATs) like Sonnet are “just a drop in the bucket compared to the upcoming HYPE unlocks,” Ruppert explained.
Nasdaq-listed Sonnet BioTherapeutics has formed a partnership with a newly established entity, Rorschach, to implement a HYPE treasury strategy involving $583 million in HYPE tokens and over $305 million in cash, reported Cointelegraph on July 17.
The $305 million in cash will also be allocated to the acquisition of more HYPE tokens, which still falls short compared to future unlocks.
This research was made public shortly after Hayes liquidated all his HYPE tokens, reportedly using the proceeds as a deposit for a new Ferrari, as Cointelegraph reported earlier on Monday.
While Hayes had previously forecasted a potential 126-fold increase for the token by 2028, he acknowledged that the upcoming vesting period could lead to volatility.
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Hyperliquid Faces Rising Competition from Aster
Competition is intensifying for decentralized exchange Hyperliquid.
On Thursday, Aster, a decentralized perpetuals exchange linked to Binance co-founder Changpeng Zhao, briefly surpassed $2 billion in total value locked (TVL) following the launch of its Aster (APX) token, reported Cointelegraph.
“You don’t challenge the crypto establishment without facing resistance. Business is a war,” said a researcher from Maelstrom.
“CZ promoting Aster just two months before unlocks? Likely not a coincidence.”
The HYPE token peaked at a new record of $59.29 on Thursday, just hours after Zhao shared a chart highlighting ASTER, the native token of a competing derivatives DEX.
Despite Hayes divesting all his HYPE holdings, he still envisions a potential 126-fold increase by 2028, as he mentioned in a post on X recently.
Hayes first estimated a 126x increase for the HYPE token during the Webx 2025 Conference in Tokyo, attributing this to ongoing fiat debasement that he believes will drive a stablecoin market source, potentially elevating HyperLiquid’s annualized fees to $255 billion, up from an annualized revenue of $1.2 billion at the time.
Hayes is recognized in the cryptocurrency community for his ambitious price predictions.
In April, Hayes forecast that Bitcoin (BTC) would exceed $250,000 before the end of 2025 if the US Federal Reserve shifted to quantitative easing (QE), which involves the Fed purchasing bonds and infusing money into the economy to lower interest rates and stimulate spending during economic downturns.
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