Bitcoin ended 2025 on a down note, marking the first instance of a decline in a post-halving year.
Bitcoin (BTC) halvings happen every four years, reducing mining rewards by half and introducing fewer new coins to the market. Traditionally, this triggers a cycle of accumulation: a post-halving bull run that eventually peaks, followed by a steep correction and a prolonged bear market.
Following the 2012 halving, Bitcoin surged, closing the subsequent year at a new peak; a similar trend was observed in 2016 and again in 2020.
However, this trend has changed this time.
Even with the next halving scheduled for April 2024, Bitcoin is currently trading over 30% lower than its all-time high of $126,080, established on October 6, and is concluding the year on a downward trajectory, as per data from CoinGecko.
The four-year cycle has often been utilized to forecast and analyze the general behavior of the crypto markets.
Analysts declare end of four-year cycle
Vivek Sen, the founder of Bitcoin public relations firm Bitgrow Lab, mentioned in a post on X this Wednesday that Bitcoin is closing the year down, indicating that the four-year cycle is now “officially dead.”
At the same time, investor Armando Pantoja expressed a similar sentiment, attributing it to the influx of new institutions and traders.
“The Market Has New Players; crypto isn’t 2016 or 2020 any longer. ETFs, institutions, and corporate balance sheets don’t operate like hype-driven retail. Bitcoin now reacts to macro factors, liquidity, rates, regulations, and geopolitics, not a flawless halving schedule,” he stated.
Related: Bitcoin’s 4-year cycle may not be dead after all: Glassnode
Pantoja added that while the halving is still significant, the “supply is increasingly locked, miners have financing options, and price dynamics aren’t as automatic as they once were.”
Crypto executives have mixed views on the four-year cycle
Crypto leaders, including ARK Invest CEO Cathie Wood, BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes, and Bitwise’s Matt Hougan and Hunter Horsley, have been suggesting throughout 2025 that the four-year cycle is a relic of the past.
However, some industry insiders maintain that the cycle is still relevant, albeit unfolding in a different manner than in previous years.
Markus Thielen, head of research at 10x Research, remarked during a December episode of The Wolf Of All Streets Podcast that the cycle persists, but is no longer governed by programmed supply reductions.
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