By Francisco Rodrigues (All times ET unless indicated otherwise)
Gold has crossed the $4,000 per ounce threshold for the first time, and during this moment, bitcoin saw a 1.25% decline in value, while the broader cryptocurrency market, represented by the CoinDesk 20 (CD20) index, saw a 3% reduction.
This downturn followed a period of profit-taking after the crypto market had surged over 7.7% in less than a week, coupled with an increase in the paper gains of whales. Additionally, this discrepancy appeared as the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) reached its highest point in two months.
Gold, traditionally a safe haven asset, has soared more than 50% this year. According to ING, investment into gold-linked exchange-traded funds (ETFs) has intensified, reaching levels not seen since late 2022.
Investors are seeking protection from escalating political uncertainties, including a leadership crisis in France and rising tensions related to Japan’s fiscal policies. Furthermore, the U.S. government shutdown, now entering its second week, has postponed crucial economic data and heightened worries about fiscal wellbeing.
Bitcoin, often viewed as a safeguard against uncertainty, has faced pressure from the strengthening U.S. dollar and the movement of BTC from short-term whales into exchanges, indicating an inclination to secure profits.
Moreover, rising Japanese government bond yields, which climbed to a 17-year peak this week, have added to bitcoin’s challenges. The 10-year yield reached 1.70%, factoring in the fiscal risks associated with the incoming Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s spending agenda inspired by Abenomics.
Goldman Sachs has indicated that the pressures from Japanese bond yields could affect global bonds. Higher yields generally tighten financial conditions worldwide and diminish the appeal of riskier assets like BTC.
Nonetheless, institutional interest in Bitcoin persists. Spot ETFs listed in the U.S. attracted over $3 billion in inflows last week, bringing total net inflows to over $60 billion. An additional $2 billion has flowed in this week, as reported by SoSoValue.
Other notable news includes S&P Global unveiling the Digital Markets 50 Index, which tracks 15 cryptocurrencies and 35 crypto-linked equities, while the Intercontinental Exchange made a $2 billion investment in the crypto-native predictions market Polymarket.
Linh Tran, a market analyst at XS.com, mentioned in an emailed statement, “In the near term, Bitcoin’s fundamental outlook remains positive, bolstered by expectations of monetary easing, steady ETF inflows, and ongoing demand for safe-haven assets. Should the Fed provide more clarity regarding the start of a rate-cut cycle in upcoming meetings, Bitcoin is likely to benefit, with the potential for significant price increases in the fourth quarter.”
The next challenge might come from the Federal Reserve. Traders are anticipating rate cuts, and if the Fed indicates a shift towards easing, both gold and bitcoin could regain momentum.
Stay cautious!
What to Watch
For a comprehensive list of events this week, check out CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead”.
- Crypto
- Macro
- Oct. 8, 9:30 a.m.: Fed Governor Michael S. Barr gives a speech at the 2025 Community Banking Research Conference in St. Louis. Watch live.
- Oct. 8, 2 p.m.: Release of minutes from the Fed’s Sept. 16-17 FOMC meeting.
- Earnings (Estimates based on FactSet data)
Token Events
To see an extensive list of events this week, refer to CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead”.
- Governance votes & calls
- ZKSync DAO is voting on a proposal to allocate 25 million ZK tokens (~$1.25M) for the “Prividium Roadshow” through the end of 2026. Voting concludes on Oct. 8.
- GMX is holding elections for Season 3 of its Listing Committee, which will select three members to oversee new asset listings on GMX protocols. Voting ends on Oct. 8.
- Jito DAO is voting on a proposal to expand the validator set from 200 to 400 and update StakeNet’s ranking and eligibility criteria to improve negative stake pool dynamics. Voting concludes on Oct. 8.
- Unlocks
- Token Launches
- Oct. 8: Sky (SKY) to be listed on BitFlyer.
Conferences
For a detailed list of events this week, refer to CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead”.
Token Talk
By Oliver Knight
- BNB Chain activity remains strong this week, contributing to a 10% daily increase for and a 3% increase for BNB, even as the market cools.
- PancakeSwap’s spot trading volume reached $19 billion in the last 24 hours as traders aim to profit from the latest influx of Chinese-language meme coins, which, in some instances, have surged to valuations exceeding $350 million.
- The shift in momentum towards BNB Chain, moving away from platforms like Solana, is attributed to the rise of Aster, a decentralized perpetual exchange that frequently achieves over $100 billion in daily volume despite claims of trading flow discrepancies.
- The total value locked (TVL) on BNB Chain has surged from $6.5 billion to $9 billion since June, yet it still falls short of its all-time high of $26.3 billion established in 2021, indicating potential for further growth within the ecosystem.
- This expansion of the network hinges on the overall health of the crypto market; BTC and ETH both surrendered gains on Wednesday as the market starts to consolidate after another unsuccessful breakout.
- A downward trend could burden BNB Chain, as crypto traders often reduce risk by switching to stablecoins, which diminishes demand for speculative meme coins.
Derivatives Positioning
- Leading tokens have seen a decrease in futures open interest (OI) over the past 24 hours, with AVAX standing out with a 2% increase in OI.
- This widespread drop indicates that recent price trends are primarily driven by profit-taking rather than a surge in bearish sentiment.
- Perpetual funding rates remain stable at or under an annualized 10%, signifying a slight bullish outlook in the market.
- On the CME, ether futures open interest has fallen to 2.16 million ETH from Monday’s peak of 2.34 million. Despite this decline, positioning is still relatively high compared to bitcoin’s open interest, which is significantly below its December 2024 peak.
- Both BTC and ETH futures premiums on the CME are trading under 10%.
- On Deribit, the bitcoin options market displays a slightly negative skew across all tenors, suggesting puts are somewhat more expensive than calls. Block trades are predominantly seen in bitcoin bull call spreads and outright purchases of out-of-the-money ether calls.
Market Movements
- BTC is up 0.45% from 4 p.m. ET Tuesday at $122,564.51 (24hrs: -1.36%)
- ETH is down 0.62% at $4,484.06 (24hrs: -4.42%)
- CoinDesk 20 is down 0.22% at 4,228.30 (24hrs: -3.15%)
- Ether CESR Composite Staking Rate is up 4 bps at 2.89%
- BTC funding rate is at 0.0091% (9.9645% annualized) on KuCoin
- DXY is up 0.38% at 98.95
- Gold futures are up 1.43% at $4,061.80
- Silver futures are up 2.51% at $48.71
- Nikkei 225 closed down 0.45% at 47,734.99
- Hang Seng closed down 0.48% at 26,829.46
- FTSE is up 0.54% at 9,535.15
- Euro Stoxx 50 is up 0.39% at 5,635.69
- DJIA closed down 0.2cesr% at 46,602.98
- S&P 500 closed down 0.38% at 6,714.59
- Nasdaq Composite closed down 0.67% at 22,788.36
- S&P/TSX Composite closed down 0.59% at 30,351.72
- S&P 40 Latin America closed down 1.3% at 2,839.90
- U.S. 10-Year Treasury rate is down 1.6 bps at 4.111%
- E-mini S&P 500 futures are up 0.15% at 6,771.50
- E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures are up 0.21% at 25,091.00
- E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average Index are up 0.16% at 46,925.00
Bitcoin Stats
- BTC Dominance: 59.11% (0.19%)
- Ether to bitcoin ratio: 0.03658 (-0.22%)
- Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 1,011 EH/s
- Hashprice (spot): $51.52
- Total Fees: 4.04 BTC / $498,734
- CME Futures Open Interest: 145,005 BTC
- BTC priced in gold: 30.5 oz
- BTC vs gold market cap: 8.62%
Technical Analysis
- The chart above illustrates the monthly performance of CAKE, the native utility and governance token for PancakeSwap, in candlestick format.
- Despite a more than 70% surge this month, CAKE’s prices remain trapped in a three-year-long consolidation phase.
- Extended ranges typically lead to significant price movements in either direction. Watch for a potential bullish breakout, which could trigger a rapid upward trend.
Crypto Equities
- Coinbase Global (COIN): closed on Tuesday at $375.78 (-2.67%), up 0.62% at $378.10 in pre-market
- Circle Internet (CRCL): closed at $148.72 (+0.14%), up 1.14% at $150.41
- Galaxy Digital (GLXY): closed at $39.58 (+1.91%), up 3.61% at $41.01
- Bullish (BLSH): closed at $65.1 (-5.36%), up 1.01% at $65.76
- MARA Holdings (MARA): closed at $20.25 (-1.56%), up 0.69% at $20.39
- Riot Platforms (RIOT): closed at $21.47 (-0.42%), up 1.30% at $21.75
- Core Scientific (CORZ): closed at $17.1 (-4.52%), up 0.88% at $17.25
- CleanSpark (CLSK): closed at $17.96 (+3.04%), up 3.17% at $18.53
- CoinShares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI): closed at $53.38 (+2.08%), up 1.12% at $53.98
- Exodus Movement (EXOD): closed at $29.71 (-6.28%)
Crypto Treasury Companies
- Strategy (MSTR): closed at $328.4 (-8.7%), up 1.98% at $334.89
- Semler Scientific (SMLR): closed at $28.36 (-7.77%), up 1.09% at $28.67
- SharpLink Gaming (SBET): closed at $17.77 (-7.64%), up 0.62% at $17.88
- Upexi (UPXI): closed at $7.05 (-8.44%), up 0.85% at $7.11
- Lite Strategy (LITS): closed at $2.45 (-5.77%), up 2.45% at $
ETF Flows
Spot BTC ETFs
- Daily net flow: $875.6 million
- Cumulative net flows: $62.09 billion
- Total BTC holdings ~ 1.35 million
Spot ETH ETFs
- Daily net flow: $420.9 million
- Cumulative net flows: $15.03 billion
- Total ETH holdings ~ 6.79 million
Source: Farside Investors
