Ether’s price has risen by 25% since early August, but historical trends indicate the cryptocurrency might lose momentum in September.
We can only wait and see if Ether (ETH) behaves differently this year, with billions being invested in spot Ether ETFs and treasury companies.
Crypto trader CryptoGoos noted in a post on X, “ETH seasonality in September during post-halving years is usually negative. Will this time be an exception?”
As of publication, Ether is priced at $4,759, up approximately $952 from its opening price of $3,807 on Aug. 1, according to CoinMarketCap. The cryptocurrency peaked above $4,867 on Friday after dovish comments from US Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell at the Jackson Hole symposium.
Historical caution for Ether in September
Powell hinted at a potential interest rate reduction next month, which many in the crypto market see as a possible bullish catalyst.
However, history advises caution for Ether, as there have only been three occasions since 2016 when it posted gains in August, each followed by a decline in September, according to CoinGlass.
Since 2016, September has recorded an average loss of 6.42% for Ether. Source: CoinGlass
In 2017, Ether surged 92.86% in August, only to drop 21.65% the following month.
This pattern recurred in 2020, with a 25.32% gain in August followed by a 17.08% decline in September. In 2021, Ether increased by 35.62% in August before slipping 12.55% in September.
Ether gained in the latter three months of 2016 and 2020
Interestingly, despite experiencing losses in September 2016 and 2020, Ether gained in the following three months in both years.
However, this September may differ from past years, as spot Ether ETFs and Ether treasury companies are now present, which were absent during previous August rallies.
On Aug. 11, the total Ether held by treasury companies exceeded $13 billion in value, as the cryptocurrency’s price rose above $4,300.
Source: Satoshi Stacker
On Saturday, blockchain intelligence firm Arkham reported that BitMine chairman Tom Lee purchased another $45 million worth of Ether for the firm, raising BitMine’s total stack to $7 billion.
August has been a pivotal month for spot Ether ETFs
Meanwhile, spot Ether ETFs experienced around $2.79 billion in net inflows in August alone, while spot Bitcoin (BTC) ETFs recorded roughly $1.2 billion in net outflows during the same timeframe, according to Farside.
Related: ETH data and the resurgence of investor risk appetite pave the road to a $5K Ether price
NovaDius Wealth Management president Nate Geraci remarked in a post on Saturday that there has been a “notable shift” in inflows between spot Ether and spot Bitcoin ETFs.
Meanwhile, Bitcoin dominance, which measures its overall market share, has decreased by 5.88% over the past 30 days to 58.19%, which many market participants typically associate with capital rotating into the broader crypto market, moving away from BTC.
Magazine: ETH ‘god candle,’ $6K next? Coinbase strengthens security: Hodler’s Digest, Aug. 17 – 23
