Key takeaways:
ETH aims for a record monthly close, paving the way for potential year-end gains.
Historically, August’s average 60% gains have preceded December’s rallies, despite some dips in September.
The monthly MACD has turned bullish, mirroring previous signals that led to significant uptrends.
Ethereum’s native token, Ether (ETH), is poised for its highest monthly close, surpassing the current record of approximately $4,955.
This movement could unlock as much as 60% more upside by year-end.
Ether typically gains 60% after a successful August
When ETH closes August positively, the subsequent months have generally yielded about 60% average returns.
In August 2017, a 92.9% increase set the stage for an additional 91% rally into year-end, driven by initial coin offerings (ICO) enthusiasm, according to data from CoinGlass.
In 2020, ETH rose 25.3% in August before surging 69% from September to December, with November alone contributing 59% profits as DeFi adoption thrived.
Even in 2021, when the market was nearing saturation, a 35.6% rise in August was followed by a 17.8% increase into December.
Conversely, if Ethereum ends August in the red, year-end performance has historically averaged a -14.1% decline, emphasizing the significance of a positive close this month.
There’s also a notable pattern: every bullish August has led to a bearish September, averaging around a 17% decrease.
These initial pullbacks often unsettle traders with “bear market PTSD,” according to analyst Axel Bitblaze.
Once panic selling subsides, Ether tends to rebound powerfully into the final quarter.
Related: Crypto whales acquire $456M Ether in ‘natural rotation’ from Bitcoin
BitBlaze anticipates ETH to resume its bullish trend toward $6,800–$7,000, aligning with targets previously noted by Standard Chartered’s Geoffrey Kendrick and other analysts.
Continuing the typical post-August rally could see Ether rise further, with a 60% increase from current levels positioning prices around $7,375 by December.
Ether’s MACD signals bullish momentum
Ethereum’s monthly MACD has confirmed a bullish crossover, indicating the shorter-term momentum (blue) line has risen above the longer-term line (orange).
Historically, such crossovers have signaled the beginning of significant rallies.
Ethereum’s MACD flipped bullish in early 2020, just before ETH prices surged over 2,200% into its peak in 2021. Another similar pull occurred in late 2023, leading to a rebound of over 120% by mid-2025.
In contrast, the MACD’s bearish crossover in early 2022 marked the onset of a steep downtrend that wiped out more than 70% of Ether’s value, illustrating the importance of these signals at critical market cycle junctures.
With a new bullish crossover in motion, the outlook shifts back to the upside, strengthening predictions for ETH to approach the $7,000–$7,500 range by the end of 2025.
This article does not offer investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading decision carries risk, and readers should perform their own research before acting.
