Bitcoin’s recent correction sent shockwaves through the trading community. The BTC price fell from over $120,800 to nearly $102,000 before rebounding nearly 9% to surpass $111,000. While altcoins like Ethereum and XRP saw declines exceeding 13%, Bitcoin’s 7% dip at press time demonstrates its relatively stronger position — suggesting underlying resilience despite significant liquidations.
The crucial question lingers: Can Bitcoin maintain its position above $100,000, or will the price dip below this vital psychological threshold shortly? Three charts hold the insights.
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Holders Rise and Veterans Stay Calm Amid The Crash
The initial indicator of support comes from on-chain holder behaviors.
In spite of the dip, the number of Bitcoin holders increased from 56.92 million to 56.98 million since yesterday, indicating that investors were taking advantage of lower prices. This reflects a dip-buying mentality rather than panic selling.
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The Spent Coins Age Bands (SCAB) further supports this notion. This metric tracks the age of coins being transacted — distinguishing whether older or newer holders are spending their Bitcoin.
As the crash commenced on October 10, the overall SCAB was about 17,100 BTC, with the 180–365–day band (red) around 9,995 BTC, and the 365–day–2–year band (blue) nearly 2,452 BTC.
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As the sell-off progressed, the overall SCAB surged to 23,086 BTC, indicating increased spending activity among new holders.
Conversely, the red band modestly decreased to 9,646 BTC, while the blue band significantly fell to 535 BTC — clear signs that long-term holders remained relatively inactive.
This suggests that panic selling was primarily driven by newer or mid-term wallets, whereas veteran holders maintained their positions. Generally, veterans resist selling unless they anticipate substantial price drops, such as dipping below the $100,000 level.
When long-term holders remain passive and the total holder base expands, it typically indicates that strong hands are replacing weaker ones in the market. Such a shift can stabilize a sentiment-driven decline before the next upswing.
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Bitcoin Price Setup Flips From Bearish to Bullish
Bitcoin’s price movements reveal a clearer narrative. The recent decline was not purely driven by sentiment — it followed a technical setup often seen at turning points.
The primary factor was a bearish divergence noted on the Relative Strength Index (RSI), which gauges buying and selling momentum on a scale of 0 to 100.
A divergence occurs when the RSI and price trend in opposite directions — for instance, when the price reaches a higher peak, but the RSI registers a lower peak. This pattern typically indicates waning momentum prior to a potential reversal.
This scenario unfolded between mid-July and early October. Bitcoin made new highs, yet the RSI failed to confirm this with a lower high.
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The outcome was a significant 19.1% correction (yesterday), closely mirroring an earlier divergence-driven decline this year of over 14%. These instances highlight Bitcoin’s strong reaction to RSI signals.
Currently, the pattern has shifted. From September 25 to October 11, a bullish divergence emerged — with the price making a lower low while the RSI noted a higher low. This implies that selling pressure is diminishing, and momentum for a rebound may be quietly accumulating.
As of now, Bitcoin is trading around $111,600, coinciding with the 0.5 Fibonacci level ($111,400). A daily close above this point could validate a revitalization in strength toward $113,600, $116,800, and $120,800.
The invalidation threshold is positioned below $109,100, with downside risks confined to $106,400 and $101,900, making a fall below $100,000 unlikely in the near term. A daily closure beneath $101,900 is required to push Bitcoin’s price under $100,000.
