Cryptocurrency prices have declined over the last 24 hours, with the CoinDesk 20 Index (CD20) dropping 1.7% and all members showing losses. The sell-off in token prices was triggered by a downturn in U.S. equities after tech giants Meta (META) and Microsoft (MSFT) announced increased AI investment targets, raising concerns of overspending.
Bitcoin experienced the least change among the 20 largest cryptocurrencies, dropping 0.2% to just below $110,000, coinciding with the 17th anniversary of its white paper publication. The runner-up, ether , fell by 1.3% as the wider altcoin market headed into the weekend off a generally weak seven days.
Directional indicators from derivatives provide mixed signals. Bitcoin futures show no distinct trends, with funding rates remaining stable, open interest only slightly declining, and the three-month annualized basis staying muted.
Options have shown a shift towards a neutral-to-bearish sentiment in the short term, although, generally, there is a positive structural bias with premiums being paid for short-term calls.
Derivatives Positioning
By Saksham Diwan
- The bitcoin futures market is consolidating, lacking any definitive trend.
- Open interest (OI) dipped slightly to $26.16 billion but remains at elevated levels.
- Funding rates across most platforms are stable, indicating low overall demand. However, isolated bullish demand manifests on specific exchanges, such as Deribit, where rates surged to an annualized 8%.
- The three-month annualized basis is subdued in the 4%-5% range, indicating that the basis trade is currently unattractive.
- In options, there is a transition towards near-term neutral-to-bearish sentiment, despite a prevalent positive structural bias. The implied volatility (IV) term structure continues to suggest near-term backwardation transitioning into long-term contango.
- The one-week 25-delta skew remains positive at 8%, signifying a premium for short-term calls, though this assertion is being questioned by the 24-hour put/call volume, which has shifted to 56%-43% in favor of puts, indicating a dominant trend of near-term downside hedging or speculation.
- Coinglass data indicates $879 million in liquidations over 24 hours, with an 86-14 split between longs and shorts. BTC ($303 million), ETH ($193 million), and others ($79 million) lead in notional liquidations. The Binance liquidation heatmap points to $111,000 as a crucial liquidation threshold to watch for potential price increases.
Token Talk
By Oliver Knight
- The altcoin market is entering the weekend lower than the previous week, with ether decreasing by 1.3% to $3,840.
- Numerous tokens broke through crucial support levels during this period, marking an average decline. The CoinDesk 80 Index, which tracks the smallest of the top 100 tokens, slid by 3.8%, while the CoinDesk 20 fell by 1.3%.
- Doublezero (2z), plasma , gate token (GT), and all recorded declines ranging from 15% to 21% after extending losses on Friday.
- A few tokens defied the downward trend, most notably the popular privacy coin , which rose by 5% on Friday, contributing to a weekly increase of 47%.
- The TRUMP memecoin also saw positive performance after news that the company behind it intends to acquire fundraising platform Republic. TRUMP surged 35% over the last seven days.
- The outlook for the altcoin market now hinges on whether ether can hold its current support level at $3,700, which has offered three rebounds in October.
- A breakdown below this level would signify weakness and a possible macro trend reversal, likely impacting the entire altcoin landscape.
