By Francisco Rodrigues (All times ET unless indicated otherwise)
Bitcoin fell to approximately $107,000 after a brief recovery from last week’s sell-off that erased billions in leveraged positions. Analysts now view this downturn as a market recalibration rather than a collapse.
On-chain data from Glassnode indicates that recent fluctuations have purged excess leverage without damaging the long-term market framework. Funding rates have plummeted, futures open interest has decreased, and realized losses suggest traders are reducing risk rather than exiting their positions entirely.
However, Samer Hasn, a senior market analyst at XS.com, asserts that bitcoin is “trapped within a bearish structure,” characterized by consecutive lower highs and lower lows.
“For any significant reversal to occur, the asset must reclaim and maintain a solid position above the $111K level, which would help regain the confidence necessary for trend stabilization,” Hasn noted in an email. “Until then, market rallies are likely to be perceived as temporary corrections within a larger downtrend.”
Nonetheless, some crypto market participants view this as an opportunity to buy. BitMine, under Fundstrat’s Tom Lee, allocated $800 million to its expansive ether treasury, while Blockchain.com has initiated discussions to go public via a U.S. SPAC deal.
In a similar vein, Ripple-backed Evernorth Holdings has entered into a SPAC agreement to list on Nasdaq, aiming to surpass $1 billion to establish the “largest public XRP treasury.”
Meanwhile, overarching macro changes are bolstering risk assets. Stock prices have risen as trade tensions between the U.S. and China ease, and concerns regarding U.S. regional bank credit risks diminish. Gold has dropped over 2% to $4,265 as capital re-enters risk-on assets.
The technical landscape appears to be what is dragging the broader crypto market down, with the CoinDesk 20 (CD20) index dropping 3.56% in the last 24 hours, with all its members trading lower.
“The larger crypto market continues to experience a profound phase of deleveraging, with traders retreating as volatility escalates and confidence wanes in maintaining elevated levels,” Hasn observed.
“Should this trend continue, it may later form a foundation for a more robust bull recovery once macroeconomic and liquidity conditions improve,” he added, aligning with remarks from his colleague Linh Tran. Stay vigilant!
What to Watch
For a more extensive list of events this week, refer to CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead”.
- Crypto
- Oct. 21, 11:35 a.m. ET: Galaxy Digital (GLXY) is hosting a Q3 2025 post-earnings AMA on X.
- Macro
- Oct. 21, 8:30: Canada Sept. Inflation Rate. Headline YoY Est. 2.3%, MoM Est. -0.1%. Core YoY (Prev. 2.6%), MoM (Prev. 0%).
- Oct. 21: The Federal Reserve Board is hosting the Payments Innovation Conference in Washington, D.C. Watch live.
- Earnings (Estimates based on FactSet data)
- Oct. 21: Galaxy Digital (GLXY), pre-market.
Token Events
For a more in-depth list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead”.
- Governance votes & calls
- GnosisDAO is voting on a proposal to fund ProbeLab with $105K for developing detailed performance and security metrics for the Gnosis Chain P2P network. Voting ends Oct. 21.
- 1inch DAO is voting to eliminate the 5% Unicorn Power staking requirement for Fusion resolvers. Voting concludes on Oct. 21.
- Unlocks
- Token Launches
Conferences
For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead”.
Token Talk
By Oliver Knight
- South Korean exchanges Upbit and Bithumb listed several low market cap tokens on Tuesday, triggering a series of substantial upward moves.
- Notably, Upbit added for trading with won and dollar pairs. SynFutures is a decentralized derivatives exchange that aims to compete with HyperLiquid and Aster.
- F surged by more than 50% after the listing before retracing some of its gains. Trading volume skyrocketed by 669% to over $200 million.
- Bithumb, on the other hand, listed ZORA and RECALL. The former increased by more than 10%, while RECALL fluctuated with the general market.
- The surges following the listings were inconsistent with the altcoin market trend on Tuesday, where several assets saw double-digit declines. The CoinDesk 80 Index decreased by 4.5% in the last 24 hours.
- CAKE and ETHFI both dropped by 10%, while ETH, BNB, and SOL fell by 4%-5% as bearish sentiment returned to the market.
- Traders are currently assessing whether the market’s recent bounce over the weekend formed a lower high, which indicates a bearish trend and a potential reversal following fresh record highs less than a month ago.
Derivatives Positioning
- The bitcoin futures market is demonstrating a measured recovery, with open interest rising to $26.06 billion as traders gradually re-engage.
- The three-month annualized basis remains stable within the neutral-to-bullish 5%-6% range. Notably, funding rates have returned to primarily neutral or positive territory, suggesting that the previous short-side conviction has diminished. OKX is spearheading this adjustment with a high positive rate of 7.51%.
- The BTC options market is notably bullish, supported by an increasing expectation of future price fluctuations. The implied volatility term structure is upward sloping, indicating an expectation of rising volatility over time.
- Simultaneously, the 25-delta skew is climbing across all timeframes and has now surpassed 11.86%. This high positive skew confirms that traders are paying a substantial premium for upside exposure—call options—reflecting a strong belief in a sustained rally, despite the nearly neutral 24-hour put-call volume, which is balanced at 49%-51% favoring puts.
- Coinglass data indicates $320 million in liquidations over the past 24 hours, with a 76%-24% split between longs and shorts. BTC ($88 million), ETH ($85 million), and others ($33 million) topped the list for notional liquidations.
- The Binance liquidation heatmap suggests monitoring $112,300 as a critical liquidation level in the event of a price increase.
Market Movements
- BTC is down -2.98% from 4 p.m. ET Wednesday at $107,816.26 (24hrs: -2.62%)
- ETH is down 3.3% at $3,867.69 at $2,607.45 (24hrs: -3.84%)
- CoinDesk 20 is down 3.6% at 3,566.33 (24hrs: -3.46%)
- Ether CESR Composite Staking Rate is up 2 bps at 2.84%
- BTC funding rate is at 0.0035% (3.7931% annualized) on Binance
- DXY is up 0.27% at 98.85
- Gold futures are down 1.91% at $4,276.00
- Silver futures are down 5.43% at $48.60
- Nikkei 225 closed up 0.27% at 49,316.06
- Hang Seng closed up 0.65% at 26,027.55
- FTSE is up 0.21% at 9,423.22
- Euro Stoxx 50 is unchanged at 5,678.39
- DJIA closed on Monday up 1.12% at 46,706.58
- S&P 500 closed up 1.07% at 6,735.13
- Nasdaq Composite closed up 1.37% at 22,990.54
- S&P/TSX Composite closed up 1.02% at 30,416.44
- S&P 40 Latin America closed up 1.11% at 2,916.62
- U.S. 10-Year Treasury rate is down 1.6 bps at 3.972%
- E-mini S&P 500 futures are down 0.12% at 6,765.75
- E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures are down 0.11% at 25,276.25
- E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average Index are down 0.18% at 46,827.00
Bitcoin Stats
- BTC Dominance: 59.6% (unchanged)
- Ether to bitcoin ratio: 0.03587 (-0.36%)
- Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 1,133 EH/s
- Hashprice (spot): $46.49
- Total Fees: 2.93 BTC / $324,314
- CME Futures Open Interest: 144,835 BTC
- BTC priced in gold: 25.6 oz
- BTC vs gold market cap: 7.23%
Technical Analysis
- After a rally into the upper $111,000s yesterday, BTC faced rejection at the 20-week exponential moving average (EMA) and is now trading around $107,900.
- For bulls to sustain momentum, a daily close above the 200-day EMA and a weekly close above $107,400 would help confirm the swing failure pattern established earlier in September.
- On the downside, the 50-week EMA, currently near $100,200, remains the next significant support area on the higher timeframe.
Crypto Equities
- Coinbase Global (COIN): closed on Monday at $343.78 (+2.31%), -1.54% at $338.50 in pre-market
- Circle Internet (CRCL): closed at $130.81 (+3.42%), -0.95% at $129.57
- Galaxy Digital (GLXY): closed at $39.65 (+4.95%), +2.3% at $40.56
- Bullish (BLSH): closed at $58.76 (+2.96%), -1.77% at $57.72
- MARA Holdings (MARA): closed at $20.73 (+5.93%), -2.03% at $20.31
- Riot Platforms (RIOT): closed at $22.01 (+9.89%), -1.95% at $21.58
- Core Scientific (CORZ): closed at $18.81 (-1%), +3.14% at $19.40
- CleanSpark (CLSK): closed at $20.4 (+4.48%), -1.08% at $20.18
- CoinShares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI): closed at $59.77 (+2.64%)
- Exodus Movement (EXOD): closed at $26.13 (+5.11%), -0.92% at $25.89
Crypto Treasury Companies
- Strategy (MSTR): closed at $296.61 (+2.33%), -1.94% at $290.85
- Semler Scientific (SMLR): closed at $23.65 (+2.03%)
- SharpLink Gaming (SBET): closed at $14.79 (+3.14%), -2.16% at $14.47
- Upexi (UPXI): closed at $5.72 (+5.93%), -2.97% at $5.55
- Lite Strategy (LITS): closed at $1.98 (+5.32%)
ETF Flows
Spot BTC ETFs
- Daily net flows: -$40.4 million
- Cumulative net flows: $61.47 billion
- Total BTC holdings ~1.35 million
Spot ETH ETFs
- Daily net flows: -$145.7 million
- Cumulative net flows: $14.47 billion
- Total ETH holdings ~6.78 million
Source: Farside Investors
