Notable Insights:
September Bitcoin options expiry is dominated by bullish positions, provided BTC maintains the $110,000 support level.
Heightened demand for bullish positions exists, yet macroeconomic uncertainties pose potential risks to the downside.
This Friday, $22.6 billion in Bitcoin (BTC) options are set to expire, marking a pivotal moment following a sharp rejection at $117,000. Currently, bullish strategies are well-positioned as long as the $112,000 support level holds firm.
Deribit leads the market with $17.4 billion in open interest for this Friday’s Bitcoin options, while both OKX and CME follow behind with $1.9 billion each. The volume of call (buy) options generally surpasses that of put (sell) contracts, indicating traders’ continued optimism in the cryptocurrency space.
Favorable Demand for Neutral-to-Bullish Bitcoin Positions
The upcoming expiry aligns with typical patterns, featuring put open interest at 20% below the $12.6 billion in call positions. The final results will depend on Bitcoin’s price at 8:00 am UTC on Friday, with call holders benefiting if prices remain above $112,000.
Positioning on the Deribit exchange indicates that traders are targeting a neutral-to-bearish stance within the $95,000 to $110,000 range, which is becoming less likely. A significant number of call contracts were placed at overly optimistic levels, with $6.6 billion in open interest above $120,000, while around $3.3 billion remains realistically in play.
Currently, 81% of put options at Deribit are set at $110,000 or lower, leaving only $1.4 billion in active trades. This configuration strongly favors neutral-to-bullish outcomes, although it doesn’t account for more sophisticated strategies, such as selling puts to gain upside exposure. To gauge professional sentiment, traders are monitoring the options skew metric.
The Bitcoin options delta skew indicates moderate fear at 13%, with put options trading at a premium compared to equivalent call contracts. In neutral conditions, this measure should fluctuate between -6% and 6%, suggesting that market makers and whales are wary of downside risks at the current $113,500 level.
Related: Bitcoin to ‘move up smartly again’ by the end of 2025–Saylor
$112,000: A Crucial Level for Bitcoin’s Trajectory
Here are three potential scenarios at Deribit based on current pricing trends:
Range of $107,000 to $110,000: $1 billion in calls (buy) vs. $2 billion in puts (sell). The outcome leans towards the puts by $1 billion.
Range of $110,100 to $112,000: $1.4 billion in calls vs. $1.4 billion in puts, resulting in a balanced scenario.
Range of $112,100 to $115,000: $1.66 billion in calls vs. $1 billion in puts, favoring calls by $660 million.
It may be premature to dismiss bearish options strategies. Investor sentiment could change based on significant macroeconomic news forthcoming on Thursday, including US gross domestic product (GDP) figures, weekly unemployment claims, and upcoming Treasury auctions.
The increasingly unstable economic landscape supports additional interest rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve, which typically acts as a bullish catalyst for risk-on assets like cryptocurrencies. Nevertheless, ongoing concerns about labor market weakness contribute to risk aversion, negatively impacting Bitcoin’s value.
For now, the September monthly Bitcoin options expiry appears to favor bulls, though a substantial drop below $112,000 remains a possibility.
This article is for general informational purposes only and should not be construed as legal or investment advice. The views, thoughts, and opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.
