Bitcoin’s (BTC) ongoing trading behavior reveals one of its most significant macroeconomic disconnects in recent years, as global liquidity rises while BTC lags behind both the growth of money supply and gold’s record gains. A recent report from Bitwise indicates that this disparity may present a considerable asymmetric opportunity for Bitcoin as we approach 2026.
Key takeaways:
Bitcoin is currently trailing the global money supply by 66%, suggesting a model-based fair value around $270,000.
Gold has absorbed much of the monetary dilution in 2025 and is now exceeding global M2 by 75%.
Global liquidity shifts, but Bitcoin remains stagnant
A new edition of the Bitwise Monthly Bitcoin Macro Investor report suggests that the fundamental environment for Bitcoin is considerably more bullish than its current price action reflects. Global liquidity is pivoting toward reflation: the US is issuing nearly $1.9 trillion in Treasurys annually, readying $2,000 stimulus checks, and the Federal Reserve’s quantitative tightening (QT) ended on December 1.
Concurrently, Japan is deploying a $110 billion stimulus package, Canada has resumed quantitative easing (QE), and China has approved a substantial $1.4 trillion fiscal initiative. With over 320 global rate cuts performed in the last two years, global M2 has soared to a record $137 trillion.
In this context, Bitwise pinpointed one of the largest valuation gaps in Bitcoin’s history. Based on the firm’s cointegration model, BTC is currently undervaluing the global money supply by around 66%, indicating a fair value estimate near $270,000. This disconnect implies a hypothetical upside of about +194% if Bitcoin returns to its long-term liquidity anchor.
In essence, Bitcoin is undervalued when compared to the extent of global monetary expansion. This situation is critical since BTC has historically been the most reactive indicator of monetary dilution due to its absolute scarcity, as pointed out in the report.
Meanwhile, gold has absorbed the majority of 2025’s liquidity demand, currently exceeding the global money supply by nearly 75%. Bitwise noted this creates “a stronger case for an imminent rotation with potentially significant performance consequences” for Bitcoin.
Related: Bollinger Bands suggest Bitcoin bottom won’t fall under $55K
Bitcoin poised for robust risk-adjusted returns compared to gold
Fidelity’s Director of Global Macro Jurrien Timmer stated that Bitcoin’s trend setup is currently lagging behind gold in terms of momentum and Sharpe ratio metrics, positioning the two assets as “polar opposites.”
The Sharpe ratio assesses the returns generated by an asset relative to its volatility, indicating that gold presently offers superior risk-adjusted performance compared to Bitcoin. Although this does not yet point to a reversal, Timmer framed this growing divergence as an intriguing mean-reversion setup.
Taking a broader perspective, Timmer observed that Bitcoin remains closely aligned with its long-term power-law adoption curve, despite having dipped below $100,000. As BTC matures with limited parabolic returns, Timmer characterized BTC as “gold’s precocious younger sibling maturing,” which remains structurally robust but less volatile.
Related: Bitcoin’s lack of price strength due to timid spot buyers: What happens next?
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
