The cryptocurrency markets are unlikely to experience an altcoin season where “everything rises,” as many traders are now concentrating on specific trends or focusing exclusively on Bitcoin, according to the chief operating officer of Bitget, one of the largest cryptocurrency exchanges globally.
“I don’t believe we will witness an altseason,” Vugar Usi Zade stated to Cointelegraph at the Token2049 conference in Singapore on Wednesday.
“The whole notion that ‘this is altseason […] and everything will rise because it’s altseason,’ will not occur, and I stand firmly by that.”
“Unfortunately, I don’t think we will see that significant surge, as there’s no logical basis for it,” he continued.
“No technological advancements have been made. There haven’t been substantial developments from projects. Why would prices increase? Just because it’s the time? It’s not.”
Historically, altcoins—cryptocurrency tokens other than Bitcoin (BTC)—have surged alongside Bitcoin. Altcoin season denotes the period when altcoins outperform Bitcoin due to their more favorable risk-to-reward ratios.
Crypto “seasons” ending as Bitcoin decouples
Usi Zade mentioned that the cryptocurrency market is “moving away from seasons,” with shorter, more frequent cycles, as the market no longer trades consistently with Bitcoin.
“Bitcoin is on its own rally; its influence is nearly non-existent on the rest of the market,” he added. “Bitcoin has decoupled not only from the stock market but also from altcoins.”
“There have been numerous instances where Bitcoin is the only asset in the green, while the rest of the market is in the red. Money is not transitioning from Bitcoin to altcoins.”
Crypto rallies or seasons are likely to become focused around trending narratives, with gains limited to tokens within the popular sectors, Usi Zade indicated.
“Currently, we are discussing RWA [real world assets]; likely there will be a collection of RWAs that will rise, but that won’t impact anything else,” he mentioned.
Shift in market attitudes needed for sustainable altcoins
Usi Zade pointed out that crypto investors typically focus on short cycles, making it “almost impossible” for projects to endure over the long term, as the market anticipates profitability within just months.
“It took Amazon over 10 years to turn a profit, yet we expect a crypto venture to achieve that in eight months,” he stated. “This is the major issue with how the entire market operates.”
He remarked that traditional businesses often see their initial investors sell to other venture firms when exiting, which helps maintain capital flow. However, in crypto, it “functions the other way around,” with tokens available to retail investors immediately.
“The token is a distinct product. You must collaborate with traders and ensure that you are actively traded; otherwise, your price may plummet. When your price approaches zero, your product or project is effectively dead, and nearly impossible to revive,” Usi Zade asserted.
Bitcoin becoming the sole recommendation
Usi Zade noted that many in the crypto community are now advising newcomers to only hold Bitcoin, moving away from the previously recommended portfolio allocation of 70% Bitcoin and 30% Ether (ETH).
“Nowadays, no one suggests a combination of Bitcoin and Ethereum,” he commented. “People are simply advising Bitcoin.”
He added that Ether’s price is “far more stable” compared to Bitcoin, which has continued to reach new highs for almost a year, leaving investors with “no incentive” to purchase ETH.
Bitcoin and Ether’s market dominances have remained relatively stable over the last year. Bitcoin currently holds a 58% market share, down from a 12-month peak of 65%, while ETH’s market share stands at 12%, recovering from multi-year lows of 7.3% in April, according to CoinMarketCap.
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Additional reporting by Ciaran Lyons.
