Bitcoin has set a new resistance level at $116,000, which is unlikely to shift until the cryptocurrency regains momentum, say analysts at Bitfinex.
Nevertheless, two potential catalysts could help lift Bitcoin’s (BTC) price.
“BTC is currently trading at the upper boundary near $116,000, which remains a resistance until it is decisively reclaimed,” Bitfinex reported on Tuesday.
The report highlighted that Bitcoin’s momentum has lessened since reaching an all-time high of $124,100 on August 14, pulling its price below the cost basis of recent buyers who entered during the peak, within the $108,000 to $116,000 range.
Currently, Bitcoin is trading at $116,370, according to CoinMarketCap.
The slight recovery over the past week comes as the US Federal Reserve is expected to announce its interest rate decision on Wednesday, with market participants predicting a 96.1% chance of a 25 basis point cut, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.
Analysts split on Fed’s impact
Market players have differing views on how Bitcoin’s price will respond if the Fed implements a rate cut. Fundstrat co-founder Tom Lee mentioned that reducing rates for the first time this year could act as a catalyst for Bitcoin and Ether (ETH) to make “a significant move in the next three months.”
Conversely, others are more cautious. Crypto analyst Ted expressed confidence that the Fed will cut rates, but noted in a post on X that Bitcoin might drop to $104,000 before rebounding or fall to $92,000 before reaching a new all-time high.
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Typically, the Fed’s reduction in interest rates is positive for risk-on assets, as traditional investments like bonds and term deposits become less attractive to investors.
However, analysts often warn that prices can still decline post-such bullish events if the market has already factored in the possibility.
Overall, sentiment in the crypto market is mixed, with the Crypto Fear & Greed Index showing a “Neutral” score of 53 on Wednesday.
Q4 may serve as a bullish driver for crypto
Another catalyst being watched is October 1, the beginning of the fourth quarter of 2025, which has historically been Bitcoin’s best performing quarter, averaging an 85.42% return since 2013, according to CoinGlass.
Meanwhile, Bitfinex analysts stated that confidence among long-term holders remains strong, as the recent sell-off, which saw Bitcoin drop to $107,400 on September 1, was driven mainly by investors who purchased in the last six months.
“This dynamic indicates that those who accumulated during the February – May correction used the recent bounce as a chance to exit profitably, presenting significant hurdles for further upward momentum,” the analysts noted.
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