Key takeaways:
The rally in Bitcoin driven by institutions has overshadowed retail-focused memecoins.
Leading memecoins, including DOGE, PEPE, and TRUMP, indicate potential for a short-term rebound in Q4.
Bitcoin (BTC) pushed its 2025 bull market to new heights above $125,000 over the weekend, encouraging notable altcoins like Ether (ETH), Solana (SOL), and BNB (BNB) to rise alongside it.
However, the top memecoins have not kept up with the overall crypto surge this year.
DOGE, TRUMP, and other memecoins decline
Bitcoin has increased by over 32% year-to-date, reflecting a wider boom in risk markets attributed to a weakening US dollar. BTC has also gained from ongoing demand from US-based spot ETFs and global corporations.
In contrast, memecoins, once seen as indicators of retail speculation, have encountered difficulties.
This includes the leading memecoin Dogecoin (DOGE), whose valuation has decreased by 20.20% year-to-date, along with Shiba Inu (SHIB) and Pepe (PEPE), which have dropped 41.41% and 48.55%, respectively, during the same timeframe.
Solana-based Bonk (BONK) has fallen 32.80%, while the Official Trump (TRUMP) token, introduced earlier this year, has decreased by more than 83% from its peak. AICell has plummeted over 96%.
Decline in new Solana memecoin mints over 75%
The quantity of new memecoins emerging from Solana-based launchpads has decreased significantly since July, based on data from Dune Analytics.
During the peak of the mid-2025 frenzy, Solana was generating nearly 400 new meme tokens daily. By late August, that number had fallen below 100, indicating a decrease of over 75% in retail engagement and speculative investment.
The decrease implies waning retail interest in memecoins, as traders are increasingly moving towards prediction markets, according to data collected by Analyst MovieTime Dune.
It reveals that Solana memecoins recorded $864.8 million in volume during the week of Sept. 21–28, contrasted with $1.54 billion across prediction platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi.
This is nearly 1.8 times higher, emphasizing how the rise of institutional narratives and alternative speculation venues is diverting retail focus from the memecoin market.
Are leading memecoins set for a Q4 rebound?
Based on technical analyses, some memecoins are showing signs of a potential late-stage recovery in Q4 2025.
This includes DOGE, which appears to be forming an ascending triangle pattern after declining over 70% from its recent high.
A breakout above the triangle’s upper trendline around $0.28 could confirm a bullish continuation setup, potentially aiming for $0.41, a 60% increase from current levels, by year’s end.
Related: What is the potential peak for DOGE as the first Dogecoin ETF launches?
On the other hand, a drop below the lower trendline might push DOGE towards the ascending trendline support, coinciding with the 200-3D exponential moving average (200-3D EMA; the blue wave) at approximately $0.195.
Another high-volume memecoin, Pepe (PEPE), is also forming a similar bullish reversal pattern, with a target of $0.00002230 by year-end, indicating a 126% increase from present price levels.
Meanwhile, the price of TRUMP is currently testing a resistance level at its multi-month descending trendline near $8.30–$8.35, which aligns with the 20-day EMA.
A breakout in this area could lead to the $9.26–$10.75 Fib retracement zone — the latter corresponding with the 200-day EMA (the blue wave) — by the end of the year.
Failure to surpass resistance may result in another decline towards the $7.30 accumulation zone.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
