According to Alex Thorn, Galaxy Digital’s head of firmwide research, 2026 might pose significant challenges for predicting bitcoin prices, despite the firm’s positive long-term perspective.
In a post dated Dec. 21 on X, Thorn remarked that the upcoming year appears “too chaotic to forecast,” highlighting a blend of macroeconomic uncertainty, political risks, and fluctuating crypto market activity. His insights stem from Galaxy Research’s report released on Dec. 18, titled “26 Crypto, Bitcoin, DeFi, and AI Predictions for 2026,” which details the firm’s expectations for cryptocurrency markets and the rate of institutional adoption.
As of the current moment, Thorn noted that the overall cryptocurrency market is entrenched in a bear phase, with bitcoin facing difficulties in re-establishing a consistent bullish trend. He mentioned that until the asset trades decisively above the $100,000 to $105,000 range, the risk of downturn remains significant.
Signals from options markets
The derivatives markets reflect this uncertainty. Thorn indicated that the pricing of bitcoin options suggests roughly equal chances of starkly different outcomes in the upcoming year, with traders anticipating prices near $70,000 or $130,000 by mid-2026, and either $50,000 or $250,000 by year-end.
Options markets are commonly utilized by institutional investors to mitigate future price risks, and such extensive ranges indicate that professionals are bracing for major price fluctuations rather than a clear trend.
Indicators of structural maturity
Concurrently, Thorn identified signs of structural changes occurring beneath the surface. He observed that long-term bitcoin volatility—reflecting price fluctuations over a lengthy period—has been on a downward trend. Part of this change he attributes to the rise of institutional strategies such as options overwriting and yield-generation programs, which generally help to minimize extreme price movements.
This evolution is also apparent in bitcoin’s volatility smile, which illustrates how option prices differ across various strike levels. Thorn stated that downside protection is now priced higher than upside exposure, a trend more typically associated with mature macro assets like equities or commodities, rather than high-growth markets.
Why a quiet year might not be detrimental
For Thorn, these indicators elucidate why a potentially stagnant or “dull” 2026 would not detract from bitcoin’s long-term viability. Even if prices trend lower or approach significant long-term benchmarks such as the 200-week moving average, he anticipates continued institutional adoption and market maturation.
Beyond immediate price dynamics, Galaxy’s long-term conviction is rooted in deeper institutional integration.
The firm’s Dec. 18 report stated that a significant asset-allocation platform could incorporate bitcoin into standard model portfolios, which would integrate the asset into default investment strategies rather than relying on discretionary trades. Such inclusion would ensure ongoing capital flows into bitcoin, regardless of market cycles, reinforcing Galaxy’s belief that structural adoption—rather than short-term volatility—will influence outcomes into 2027 and beyond.
Thorn believes that increased institutional access, potential easing of monetary conditions, and demand for alternatives to fiat currencies could enable bitcoin to emulate gold as a hedge against monetary debasement. Galaxy projects that the flagship cryptocurrency may reach $250,000 by the end of 2027.
