Recently, there has been a trend to disregard bitcoin’s four-year cycle — and the predictable boom and bust it entails — as outdated.
In just the last week, Bitwise’s Matt Hougan and ARK Invest’s Cathie Wood have added their strong support to the notion of overlooking the four-year cycle. They highlighted the impacts of ETFs, in addition to regulatory and institutional acceptance, that have integrated bitcoin into mainstream finance. Bitcoin has transitioned from a niche asset, and its behavior today need not mirror past patterns.
Understanding the cycle
The four-year cycle is a price pattern associated with bitcoin’s halving events, which happen approximately every four years. These halvings cut in half the bitcoin rewards for mining a block. This reduction is believed to create a supply shock, which typically drives prices significantly higher.
After a major price surge, there is typically a decline of around 80%, followed by a gradual increase leading up to the next halving event.
Market analysts often cite the upward trends (and subsequent declines) that followed the halvings in 2012, 2016, and 2020, suggesting similar dynamics are unfolding for the 2024 halving: a steep ascent estimated to peak in October 2025 above $125,000, followed by a bear market — which is the current state of the market.
Fidelity’s Timmer shares insights
Jurrien Timmer, Fidelity’s director of global macro and an early advocate for bitcoin within traditional finance, finds no indication in his analysis that the four-year cycle is over.
“If we visually align all the bull markets, we can see that the October peak of $125,000 after 145 [weeks] of rallying aligns quite well with expectations,” Timmer stated earlier this week.
Looking ahead, he predicts a ‘year off’ for bitcoin. Timmer indicated that subsequent bear markets usually last for about a year. “I believe that 2026 could function as an ‘off year’ for bitcoin.” He suggested that support is likely in the $65,000-$75,000 range.
