Bitcoin (BTC) began the final week of October with a positive surge; can BTC price action reverse its decline from all-time peaks?
Bitcoin achieved a weekly close at $114,500 as bulls initiated a crucial comeback, yet many traders remained skeptical.
The FOMC week kicked off with stocks expressing relief over decreased US-China tariff possibilities.
Continued rate reductions could inherently boost BTC price action, as research suggests, with AI forecasting a rise to $125,000.
“Uptober” 2025 for Bitcoin may steer clear of the infamous title of “worst October ever.”
Short-term holders are back in profit, with potential growth before reaching classic retracement zones.
Bitcoin price challenges remain as $115,000 reappears
Bitcoin delivered for the bulls at the weekly close.
Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView indicates BTC/USD rebounded to $114,500, reclaiming the 21-week exponential moving average (EMA).
Over the weekend, trader and analyst Rekt Capital highlighted this trend line as a significant level to maintain moving forward.
Bitcoin is set for a positive Weekly Close above the 21-week EMA (green)
The recent breakout from the Ascending Triangle on the Daily timeframe has allowed this favorable position on the Weekly timeframe$BTC #Crypto #Bitcoin https://t.co/T7WJgk9Uyw pic.twitter.com/4u42pdGTX9
— Rekt Capital (@rektcapital) October 26, 2025
“Bitcoin is experiencing a solid rebound from the Macro Range Low,” he mentioned in a post on X Sunday.
“Still merely consolidating inside this Monthly Range. Indeed, Bitcoin has a chance to establish the September Monthly Highs as new support by the end of the month.”
Despite its impressive bounce, Bitcoin continued to struggle in persuading many market participants that the bull market had returned.
Among these was trader Roman, who reiterated concerns over weakness at higher time frames, diminished volume, and bearish divergences on Bitcoin’s relative strength index (RSI).
“Monitoring for this potential HTF Head & Shoulders bearish reversal setup. Validates on a break below 109k neckline,” he informed X followers on Monday along with the one-week chart.
“I’ve maintained that HTF is exhausted and I’m not anticipating higher. We will see if this matures into a reversal or further consolidation for higher.”
Trading account HTL-NL classified BTC/USD within an expanding triangle, arguing that the overall circumstances had not shifted post-increase.
GM $BTC. Not much else to contribute. Soon we shall see how robust this movement is, or if another decline is necessary. https://t.co/AOCt5Naqyb pic.twitter.com/nXancsSDzY
— HTL-NL 🇳🇱 (@htltimor) October 27, 2025
Data from monitoring service CoinGlass demonstrated price slicing through liquidation points both above and below as volatility recurred.
Fed rate cut anticipated as stocks surge
This Wednesday’s Federal Reserve interest-rate decision is set to dominate macroeconomic news this week, with markets anticipating favorable outcomes.
Given the lack of inflation data due to the government shutdown, the Fed has less information than typical regarding rates.
Nonetheless, markets are optimistic that the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will implement a 0.25% cut; data from CME Group’s FedWatch Tool indicates over 95% odds.
The only data release last week, the Consumer Price Index (CPI), further supported the risk-asset bull narrative by indicating inflation below expectations.
“We have a significant week ahead,” trading resource The Kobeissi Letter summarized.
Kobeissi highlighted that essential corporate earnings will contribute to potential market volatility in the coming days, with Microsoft, Meta, Amazon, and others set to report.
Another crucial topic under consideration is the US-China trade agreement. The looming threat of tariffs had caused crypto and stocks to decline earlier this month, while over the weekend, Washington announced that an agreement was nearing completion.
US President Donald Trump is scheduled to meet with China’s Xi Jinping on Thursday.
Stock futures soared at the week’s start in response to this news, which alleviated a significant obstacle to the continuation of the bull market.
“The S&P 500 has now gained +$3 TRILLION since its October 10th low following President Trump’s announcement of the 100% China tariff,” Kobeissi noted.
“This is the most profitable market of all time.”
AI predicts all-time highs possible this month
Continuing with the discussion of interest rates, network economist Timothy Peterson had additional “hopium” for Bitcoin bulls this week.
He argued that Bitcoin price cycles are directly influenced by rate policies; thus, cutting cycles can only enhance the bullish narrative.
“Interest rates remain too high, but QE is on the horizon,” he predicted, referring to a method of central-bank liquidity infusion known as quantitative easing (QE).
Peterson has risen to prominence for his research regarding BTC price growth and Metcalfe’s law, associating the Bitcoin network’s expansion with long-term price baselines.
“Addresses/Metcalfe’s Law dictate Bitcoin’s value,” he elaborated.
“This trend is upward. There is no bubble. All dips are temporary; we will eventually rise.”
Sharing the newest insights from an AI simulation of potential BTC price developments in the short term, Peterson designated $115,000 as the new focal point.
$125,000 is a viable target before October concludes.
The model’s projections have only slightly decreased due to the recent downturn, which saw BTC/USD briefly reach $102,000 on Binance.
Uptober finally turns back to “green”
Amidst ongoing price volatility, Bitcoin’s 2025 “Uptober” remains precariously poised.
Currently at $115,000, BTC/USD is roughly 1% above its October opening level, helping to avert a “red” month under unexpected circumstances.
However, this year’s October performance still falls short of ideal — as Cointelegraph noted, average gains have been 20% since 2013.
Market participants are therefore concentrating on a substantial rebound next month.
Uptober has been… intriguing.
But we still have Growvember!!!
— Kyle Chassé / DD🐸 (@kyle_chasse) October 27, 2025
Trader Daan Crypto Trades anticipated an “interesting” monthly close, with sentiment in both September and October countering price action.
“In the meantime, Bitcoin’s price has opened & closed within a narrow 8% price range over the past four months,” he told X followers.
“A larger move is forthcoming. I anticipate the end of 2025 will be more volatile than the prior months.”
Data from the Crypto Fear & Greed Index currently suggests that overall market sentiment leans towards “neutral.”
Meanwhile, the one-month chart indicates a new record is on the verge of being established. At $115,750, BTC/USD will reach its highest monthly close ever.
Short-term holders rejoicing
Among all Bitcoin hodlers, recent buyers are arguably breathing the biggest sigh of relief this week.
Related: Bitcoin signaling ‘rare’ top indicators, Hayes forecasts $1M BTC: Hodler’s Digest, Oct. 19 – 25
Short-term holders (STHs) — those who have bought in the last six months — are now above their overall cost basis, close to $113,000.
Data from on-chain analytics platform CryptoQuant confirms that the Short-Term Holder Profit Ratio (SOPR) is back above 1, reaching levels not seen since October 8.
CryptoQuant research indicates that typically, overall supply in profit reaches about 95% before a local correction occurs.
“These corrections often bottom around the 75% mark. More precisely, we recorded 73% in September 2024: 73%, 76% in April 2024, and recently 81%,” contributor Darkfost wrote in a Quicktake blog post on Sunday.
“At present, the percentage of supply in profit is gradually increasing again, currently hovering around 83.6%, a level that can be considered encouraging, implying that investors are once more inclined to hold their BTC in anticipation of further upward movement.”
This article does not provide investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move carries risks, and readers should undertake their own research when making decisions.
