Bitcoin (BTC) makes its first comeback attempt in months, driven by geopolitical excitement surrounding global assets.
Bitcoin price rebounds to $93,000 after nearly a month away, though traders remain cautious.
A significant golden cross is nearing formation on the four-hour chart, suggesting the potential for market strength.
Traders focused on risk assets are looking closely at reactions from Venezuela this week.
Upcoming US labor-market data arrives as hopes for a Fed rate cut this month diminish.
Bitcoin whales continue to sell, increasing distribution as the new year unfolds.
Will Bitcoin breakout or drop below $80,000?
Bitcoin provides some relief to bulls this week as BTC price movements respond positively to geopolitical happenings — but will it sustain?
This query is capturing the attention of traders and analysts as BTC/USD reaches $93,000 for the first time since December 11.
According to data from TradingView, Bitcoin has appreciated by as much as 6.6% over the last five days.
“It’s uncertain if the price will recover directly from this point,” trader CrypNuevo remarked in a discussion on X.
CrypNuevo compared the current price dynamics to October 2019, predicting a potential continued search for nearby liquidity on exchange order books.
“The structure is identical, and the price previously did a liquidity run before hitting the lows, followed by a surge,” he elaborated.
“I anticipate we’ll sweep the lows, regardless of a liquidity run.”
Such a scenario suggests a dip below $80,000 for the first time since April. Along the way, two “gaps” in CME Group’s Bitcoin futures market could act as early targets.
“Two CME gaps exist below the current price at $90,500–$91,600 and $88,200–$88,800,” the Bitcoin education platform Coin Bureau confirmed.
Recent data from monitoring service CoinGlass indicates that 24-hour crypto short liquidations stand at $250 million. Liquidity surged ahead of the weekly close, with $93,700 as the next upside target for bulls.
Keith Alan, co-founder of trading platform Material Indicators, commented on the data from one of its proprietary tools, indicating more intriguing price dynamics ahead.
A “wall” of sell orders, which previously existed at $100,000, has been removed.
“Now the interesting phase starts,” Alan shared with X followers, alongside a chart showing increased buying activity from smaller Bitcoin whales.
Golden cross for Bitcoin close to confirmation
A 5% price rebound for BTC may appear modest by standard crypto metrics, but its trend implications could be meaningful.
Assessing simple (SMA) and exponential (EMA) moving averages offers Bitcoin bulls some optimism above $90,000.
For the first time since $114k, Bitcoin is trading above its 4-hour 200 moving average cloud.
This marks a success for the bulls.
As long as they can maintain the price above the MA cloud.
I’ll be keeping an eye on… pic.twitter.com/ntM9nlRO2a
— Caleb Franzen (@CalebFranzen) January 3, 2026
Currently, a bullish trend is forming with the 50-period SMA crossing above the 200-period counterpart on the four-day chart. This “golden cross” indicates heightened buying momentum on shorter timeframes and would reverse the previous “death cross” from mid-October.
On the daily chart, a golden cross remains a distant reality following its own death cross occurring a month later.
From a longer-term viewpoint, trader SuperBro observes that another pair of trendlines are flipping green: the weekly 100-period SMA and EMA.
In earlier Bitcoin bear markets, the crossing of the 100-week EMA below the 100-week SMA indicated the onset of significant price declines, but 2026 appears to differ.
“Historically, the weekly 100 EMA and SMA cross deep in the bear. Each past cycle has experienced a 50%+ crash to the cycle low within weeks,” SuperBro wrote on X.
“This is an unprecedented bullish deviation from earlier cycles.”
As Cointelegraph has highlighted, Bitcoin’s performance in 2025 has sparked increased discussions surrounding the validity of the four-year BTC price cycle theory.
Venezuelan influence on market trends
Attention is turned to risk assets and commodities this week as markets react to the recent US military actions in Venezuela and their implications.
These unexpected headlines emerged outside traditional trading hours over the weekend, allowing the crypto market to provide a real-time reaction.
The total crypto market cap has increased by 5% since Friday, reclaiming the $3 trillion mark.
Notably, it has resumed moving in alignment with safe-haven assets such as gold and silver.
XAU/USD rose by 2% as of Monday, nearing a repeat of December’s all-time highs of $4,450 per ounce.
Meanwhile, the potential ramifications of a US takeover of Venezuela’s oil and gas sector have pushed global prices lower, while the US dollar’s strength nears its highest levels in almost a month.
On Sunday, trading resource The Kobeissi Letter anticipated that assets across various categories would “shift” as traditional traders return.
“Energy prices are DECLINING amid a significant rise in geopolitical tensions. This should inform your perspective,” it added on X.
Kobeissi urged followers to “keep an eye on” gold and silver.
A possible bullish element for Bitcoin specifically arises from Venezuela’s Bitcoin reserves, a topic currently sparking increasing debate on social platforms.
Though still speculative, it’s believed that the country holds a substantial Bitcoin reserve as a means of evading US sanctions. Estimates suggest around 600,000-660,000 BTC (valued at approximately $55 billion-$60 billion).
“Before 2026, Venezuela’s official/on-chain holdings were minimal (around 240 BTC from seizures and mining as recorded by some trackers),” crypto analyst and commentator MartyParty remarked in an X post on the subject.
“The $60B figure specifically references this purported off-the-books reserve created to circumvent sanctions.”
Fed likely to maintain interest rates in January
The initial full trading week of 2026 will feature significant US macroeconomic data releases which could influence risk-asset sentiments.
⚡️ Key Economic Events This Week:
Monday – Market reactions to Venezuela developments
Tuesday – December ISM Manufacturing PMI data
Wednesday – December ADP Nonfarm Employment figures, November JOLTS Job Openings data
Friday – December Jobs Report, January MI Consumer Sentiment… pic.twitter.com/SDuBtI6wlT
— Cointelegraph (@Cointelegraph) January 5, 2026
The primary focus will be on employment trends, with figures arriving amid ongoing labor market stress.
This has implications for the Federal Reserve, which will deliberate on interest rate changes in its January 28 meeting. While another rate cut would be favorable for risk assets, current sentiment doesn’t seem to support that possibility.
The latest data from CME Group’s FedWatch Tool indicates a mere 17.2% chance of a modest 0.25% cut.
Nonetheless, analysis suggests that already lax financial conditions are likely to continue supporting stocks, at least in the short term.
“I expect favorable conditions for a bull market to remain through early 2026, accompanied by a strengthening economy and ample liquidity bolstering loose financial conditions,” trading resource Mosaic Asset Company noted in its latest newsletter edition, The Market Mosaic.
However, Mosaic cautioned that rising inflation could significantly alter the second half of 2026 compared to the first.
“I foresee a major shift looming for the stock market, with an increasing money supply ultimately compelling tighter monetary policy from major economies,” they stated.
As Cointelegraph has reported, the Fed’s composition continues to sway in favor of officials advocating for additional rate cuts, as desired by President Donald Trump.
Whales engage in selling
Bitcoin’s recovery from below $90,000 might face challenges due to intrinsic market dynamics.
Related: Kain Warwick loses $50K ETH bet, BitMine’s ‘1000x’ share plan: Hodler’s Digest, Dec. 21 – Jan. 3
Fresh insights from on-chain analytics platform CryptoQuant reveal that high-volume traders are actively working to secure modest profits and reduce BTC exposure.
The week starting December 29 recorded monthly peaks in net flows to Binance, with the BTC total nearing $1.5 billion.
“Such substantial Bitcoin and ETH transfers from private wallets to an exchange usually point towards either selling preparations or using these assets as collateral in derivatives markets,” contributor CryptoOnchain observed in a Quicktake blog entry.
CryptoQuant noted a mismatch between buying power and inflows, with stablecoin netflows remaining “essentially flat.”
“Most of this activity represents internal transfers — primarily USDT shifting between the ERC-20 and TRC-20 networks — rather than new capital entering the exchange,” CryptoOnchain added.
A subsequent QuickTake article revealed active selling by whales across exchanges.
The two-week moving average for the exchange whale ratio indicator, which tracks the fraction of inflows attributed to whale entities, is currently at its highest since March 2025.
“Historically, these fluctuations can signal a forthcoming sell-off and increased supply pressure,” CryptoOnchain remarked.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. While we strive to provide accurate and timely information, Cointelegraph does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any information in this article. This article may contain forward-looking statements that are subject to risks and uncertainties. Cointelegraph will not be liable for any loss or damage arising from your reliance on this information.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. While we strive to provide accurate and timely information, Cointelegraph does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any information in this article. This article may contain forward-looking statements that are subject to risks and uncertainties. Cointelegraph will not be liable for any loss or damage arising from your reliance on this information.
