Key takeaways:
Weekly ETF inflows exceeding $3.5 billion and exchange balances hitting a 5-year low indicate a resurgence of institutional confidence in Bitcoin.
Strong futures open interest and ongoing BTC adoption imply that traders anticipate Bitcoin will soon challenge the $150,000 mark.
After reaching an all-time high of $126,219 the day before, Bitcoin (BTC) experienced a 4.2% correction on Tuesday, a reaction somewhat expected following a weekly gain of 12.5%. Although traders are wary of a more significant pullback amidst increasing global economic uncertainty, Bitcoin derivatives and institutional flows suggest continued upward potential.
Bitcoin monthly futures are currently trading at an 8% annualized premium compared to standard spot markets, comfortably resting in the neutral range of 5% to 10%. Periods of high confidence typically elevate this spread above 20%, indicating increased demand for leveraged bullish positions. Conversely, bearish markets usually see this metric drop below 5%, or even into negative territory, which is clearly not the situation now.
While derivative traders’ apparent lack of confidence may seem bearish at first, it actually mitigates the risk of cascading liquidations should Bitcoin’s price experience a dip. Furthermore, data indicates the rally following the $109,000 retest on September 26 was driven by real inflows rather than mere speculation. The longer Bitcoin maintains a position above $120,000, the stronger the conviction among bulls.
Institutional inflows and corporate reserves bolster Bitcoin’s market position
Institutional adoption continues to favor Bitcoin, reinforcing its status as digital gold. No matter when a new all-time high is achieved, Bitcoin has gained 31% year-to-date in 2025, significantly surpassing the S&P 500’s 14% rise. Net inflows into listed Bitcoin products remain a reliable indicator of institutional interest.
The $3.55 billion in weekly net inflows into Bitcoin exchange-traded products, including ETFs, elevated total assets under management to $195.2 billion, clearly demonstrating increasing institutional adoption. By contrast, listed instruments backed by silver, which have a market cap comparable to Bitcoin’s, currently total approximately $40 billion.
Bitcoin investment firms such as Strategy and Metaplanet continue to acquire BTC as a reserve asset, reinforcing its identity as an independent asset class. Brazilian firm OranjeBTC started trading on the stock market on Tuesday after accumulating 3,675 BTC, valued at over $445 million at current prices.
Bitcoin exchange reserves plummet to a 5-year low
Bitcoin deposits on exchanges have fallen to their lowest levels in over five years, signaling a diminished supply available for immediate sale. According to Glassnode, total exchange balances are estimated at 2.38 million BTC, down from 2.99 million just a month ago. Even though large buyers can still access supply through over-the-counter (OTC) desks, the decreasing balances on exchanges indicate ongoing accumulation.
Declining Bitcoin deposits and resilient derivatives markets favor bullish trends
Bitcoin futures open interest across major exchanges currently stands at $72 billion, down 2% from Monday but still strong. A deep and liquid derivatives market is essential for attracting flows from global hedge funds and asset allocators, even including demand for short positions.
Bitcoin’s bullish momentum may hinge on mitigated risks associated with excessive stock market valuations. Traders offloaded Oracle (ORCL) shares on Tuesday following reports indicating the company was facing declining margins in its cloud server segment, especially in Nvidia-based rentals for the artificial intelligence sector.
While a short-term consolidation is possible, the strength of Bitcoin’s derivatives market and ongoing institutional adoption provide support for further growth, with bulls eyeing $150,000 or higher by year-end.
This article is for general informational purposes and should not be considered legal or investment advice. The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.
