Bitcoin (BTC) embarks on the final full week before Christmas with the $90,000 support level under threat.
Bitcoin traders prepare for a stagnant trading period as the price remains devoid of catalysts.
A new year bear flag is prompting some to anticipate a bullish outcome from the current BTC price consolidation.
CPI and unemployment data highlight a significant week for US macroeconomic indicators.
Derivatives markets are reducing risk for the medium term following a predictable Fed rate cut.
Short-term holders are indicating further signs of an ongoing market reset.
$95,000 is the target for Bitcoin liquidity acquisition
In spot markets, Bitcoin provides little certainty for traders, caught in a frustratingly narrow trading range, according to data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView.
As the Christmas holiday approaches, market participants are seeking clearer signals before making moves.
“It truly resembles a range and is trading like one,” trader CrypNuevo expressed in a dedicated X thread regarding BTC price action on Sunday.
CrypNuevo identified $80,000 and $99,000 as the new range’s boundaries, with an expectation of movement to one end or the other “soon.”
“There are additional liquidations on the upper side around the 1D50EMA ($95.5k), making it more likely to hit this zone first,” he remarked, referring to the 50-day exponential moving average.
Recent data from monitoring resource CoinGlass emphasized the potential importance of the $95,000 zone as a short-term price magnet today.
Exchange order-book liquidity, which saw a sweep of bids overnight, is now positioned to target short positions.
“The liquidity between the 95K and 98K area is shining brighter than the sun,” analyst Mark Cullen informed X followers.
Cullen suggested that a substantial player could artificially raise the price to execute a large sell order.
For crypto trader, analyst, and entrepreneur Michaël van de Poppe, the $90,000 level is critical for short-term direction.
“If the $90K level falls, I believe we will observe rapid movements to $92-94K, raising the chances of a swift breakout to $100K,” he wrote.
“However, should this $90K area hold as resistance, there is a possibility of a more substantial drop. Significant week ahead!”
As Cointelegraph reported, bearish BTC price predictions include a return closer to $50,000.
Ongoing bear flag discussions
When examining BTC price chart characteristics, traders are particularly monitoring one as 2025 approaches its conclusion.
The bear flag developing on daily timeframes has fostered a growing consensus that the current price behavior is merely a relief bounce in an overall downtrend. A break could lead to new lows.
“Let the descent to 76k commence. Bear divergences and bearish price action are proving their significance,” trader Roman stated in part of an X post on this topic last week.
Nonetheless, not everyone believes this pattern will keep sellers in control.
“This bear flag and projected move is unlikely to materialize,” trader SuperBro contended on Monday.
“Instead, I foresee a higher low or a shallow sweep akin to what we saw in April.”
SuperBro referenced BTC price behavior following the implementation of US trade tariffs, which experienced a drop below $75,000 before a multimonth recovery.
Higher lows are also being monitored on the monthly chart. SuperBro noted a potential reversal structure already underway, challenging the notion that Bitcoin is entering a new bear market despite its 30% decline from all-time highs.
“Many are certain this marks the beginning of a painful bear phase, but the monthly chart supports my base case of a drawn-out bull cycle,” he commented.
Macroeconomic data returns
A wealth of US macroeconomic data is scheduled to mark the end of the last full week before Christmas.
Unemployment figures will be the first of several key metrics for risk-asset traders, followed by the Consumer Price Index (CPI) report on Thursday.
Both reports will incorporate previously unreleased data from the government shutdown, offering insights into economic trends that traders and policymakers have lacked for several months.
“A substantial backlog of economic data awaits us this week,” trading entity The Kobeissi Letter summarized on X.
“Mass quantities of economic data from the government shutdown are officially arriving.”
Key Events This Week:
1. October Retail Sales data – Tuesday
2. November Jobs Report – Tuesday
3. November CPI Inflation data – Thursday
4. December Philly Fed Manufacturing Index – Thursday
5. October PCE Inflation data – Friday
6. November Existing Home Sales data -…
— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) December 14, 2025
The release of this data coincides with the Federal Reserve’s decision to increase liquidity after wrapping up its latest quantitative tightening (QT) phase at the end of November.
Interest rates continue to decline even though inflation remains above the Fed’s ideal 2% target. Analyzers suggest that these conditions create a favorable environment for risk assets.
“The infusion of liquidity is also synchronized with solid economic growth and upcoming fiscal stimulus set for next year due to tax and spending measures included in the One Big Beautiful Bill,” trading firm Mosaic Asset Company noted in their latest newsletter, The Market Mosaic.
“This confluence of conditions is expected to sustain the bull market into the new year. Given historically high valuations, a positive earnings outlook is crucial to drive further gains in the stock market.”
As Cointelegraph previously reported, crypto has notably diverged from stocks and gold in the past month, failing to capitalize on the recent financial easing by central banks around the globe.
Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump stated over the weekend that inflation is “totally neutralized.”
“It might drop a bit more — you want to avoid it being too [low]. You don’t want deflation; deflation can often be worse than inflation,” he stated.
Post-Fed actions of Bitcoin options traders
The Fed’s decisions have quickly started to affect Bitcoin derivatives markets.
Summarizing the end of last week, onchain analytics service Glassnode reported that traders are currently in a “wait and see” mode.
“Post FOMC, implied volatility has decreased, but downside risks remain consistently priced,” a X thread noted.
“Skew and flow data indicate an expectation of limited upside, range-bound conditions, and continued sensitivity to macroeconomic influences rather than new policy catalysts.”
Supporting its analysis, Glassnode pointed to reducing implied volatility (IV) across weekly and six-month periods.
“Lower IV implies options are pricing in smaller expected fluctuations. With the policy catalyst behind us, market uncertainty is being discounted,” Glassnode clarified.
Despite this, worries regarding the stability of the Japanese market have led some experts to caution that volatility could sharply return across risk assets.
On Friday, Japan’s central bank is anticipated to diverge from the global easing trend by increasing interest rates, an action that historically has negative implications for Bitcoin.
$BTC vs Bank of Japan
Over the prior two years, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) has implemented multiple rate hikes, marking a structural shift after 17 years of ultra-low rates, returning them to levels not seen since the 2008 financial crisis.
Historically, each BoJ rate increase has triggered a downturn… pic.twitter.com/mbkvNC3D3o
— Cryptocium (@Cryptocium_id) December 15, 2025
Bitcoin market speculators undergo cleansing
Bitcoin speculators are capitulating at a pace not witnessed since late 2023, “setting the stage” for a market resurgence.
Related: Michael Saylor hints at next Bitcoin buy as BTC falls below $88K
In one of its latest market insights, onchain analytics platform CryptoQuant recorded two-year lows in the ratio of loss-incurring onchain transactions from long-term (LTH) and short-term (STH) holders.
A “ratio of a ratio,” the data arises from the spent output profit ratio (SOPR) metric, which gauges the extent to which coins on the blockchain are transacting in profit or loss.
When STH-based onchain losses significantly outweigh those of LTHs, it can indicate a flush-out of speculative behavior is in progress.
The SOPR Ratio recently reached 1.29, a low not experienced since BTC/USD began its ascent during the Q3 2023 bull run, when BTC/USD hovered around $30,000.
“This sharp decline signifies that short-term holders (STH) are realizing substantial losses compared to long-term holders (LTH), who continue to hold firm and make minimal movements, whether profits or losses,” CryptoQuant contributor NovAnalytica remarked.
“Historically, such extreme lows in this ratio have coincided with major capitulation phases for speculative players – often eliminating weak hands and paving the way for a market recovery.”
Last week, Cointelegraph highlighted the ongoing struggle of STHs to prevent complete capitulation as their cost basis becomes a focal point.
This article is not investment advice. Each investment and trading action carries risk, and it is advisable for readers to perform their own analysis before making decisions. While efforts are made to ensure accurate and timely information, Cointelegraph does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or dependability of any presented information. This article may contain forward-looking statements that are subject to risks and uncertainties. Cointelegraph does not accept liability for any loss or damage that may arise from reliance on this information.
