Key highlights:
Weekly ETF inflows surpassing $3.5 billion and exchange balances at a 5-year low indicate a renewed trust from institutions in Bitcoin.
Robust futures open interest and ongoing BTC adoption imply traders anticipate Bitcoin could soon reach $150,000.
On Tuesday, Bitcoin (BTC) experienced a 4.2% correction after peaking at a $126,219 all-time high the day before, a move anticipated following a 12.5% weekly increase. While concerns about a deeper retracement loomed due to uncertainties in the global economic landscape, Bitcoin derivatives and institutional flows still suggest potential for upward movement.
Bitcoin monthly futures are currently trading at an 8% annualized premium compared to standard spot markets, comfortably situated within the neutral 5% to 10% range. Periods of heightened confidence typically push this premium above 20%, indicating greater demand for leveraged bullish positions. Conversely, bearish markets tend to pull this indicator below 5% or even into negative territory, which is not evident now.
At first glance, the apparent lack of confidence among derivative traders might seem bearish; however, it actually mitigates the risk of cascading liquidations should Bitcoin’s price decline further. Additionally, data suggests the rally following the $109,000 retest on September 26 was fueled by actual inflows rather than speculation. The longer Bitcoin remains above $120,000, the more the bulls’ conviction solidifies.
Institutional inflows and corporate reserves bolster Bitcoin’s market standing
Institutional adoption continues to support Bitcoin, reinforcing its status as digital gold. Regardless of when a new all-time high is achieved, Bitcoin has appreciated by 31% year-to-date in 2025, significantly outpacing the S&P 500’s 14% rise. Net flows into Bitcoin products remain a key indicator of institutional interest.
The $3.55 billion in weekly net inflows into Bitcoin exchange-traded products, including ETFs, boosted total assets under management to $195.2 billion, signaling increased institutional adoption. For context, instruments backed by silver, which have a market capitalization roughly equivalent to Bitcoin’s, currently amount to about $40 billion.
Bitcoin investment firms like Strategy and Metaplanet continue to acquire BTC as a reserve asset, further establishing its identity as an independent asset class. Brazilian firm OranjeBTC started trading publicly on Tuesday after amassing 3,675 BTC, worth over $445 million at current prices.
Bitcoin exchange reserves drop to a 5-year low
Bitcoin deposits on exchanges have reached their lowest in over five years, indicating a diminished supply available for immediate sale. Glassnode estimates total exchange balances at 2.38 million BTC, down from 2.99 million just a month prior. While large buyers can still secure supply via over-the-counter (OTC) desks, declining balances on exchanges suggest persistent accumulation.
Decreased Bitcoin deposits and resilience in derivatives markets favor bullish trends
Bitcoin futures open interest across major exchanges currently stands at $72 billion, a 2% decrease from Monday but still robust. A deep and liquid derivatives market is vital for attracting flows from global hedge funds and asset allocators, even when they include demand for short positions.
Bitcoin’s bullish momentum could hinge on reduced risks of inflated stock market valuations. Traders offloaded Oracle (ORCL) shares on Tuesday after reports indicated the company was facing dwindling margins in its cloud server business, particularly in Nvidia-based rentals for the artificial intelligence sector.
While a short-term consolidation remains likely, the robustness of Bitcoin’s derivatives market and ongoing institutional adoption buttress prospects for additional gains, with bulls eyeing $150,000 or more by year-end.
This article is intended for general informational purposes and should not be considered legal or investment advice. The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.
