By Francisco Rodrigues (All times ET unless indicated otherwise)
Cryptocurrency prices took a downward turn over the last 24 hours, influenced by a sell-off in equities following U.S. tech giants Meta and Microsoft increasing their AI investment forecasts, which raised concerns about overspending.
Bitcoin changed little, slipping 0.3% to about $110,000 on the 17th anniversary of its white paper release, whereas ether decreased 1.3% to approximately $3,840. The minor dip occurs as traders analyze shifting expectations regarding interest rates and inflation across both sides of the Atlantic.
The European Central Bank appears to be halting its rate-cutting strategy, while the Federal Reserve has indicated that a rate cut in December is “not guaranteed.” On Polymarket, the perceived likelihood of three U.S. rate reductions this year has dropped from 86% to 64%.
Crypto exchange-traded funds experienced negative flows, with spot bitcoin ETFs seeing $600 million in outflows this week and ETH ETFs reporting outflows of $184.3 million, according to SoSoValue data.
The ETFs are exhibiting “signs of investor caution,” while the Fear & Greed Index sinks deeper into “fear” territory, Bitget COO Vugar Usi Zade stated in an email.
“This shift certainly reflects increasing macro anxiety, driven by persistent inflation, high-interest rates, and uncertainty regarding the Fed’s policy direction,” Zade wrote. “However, despite the retreat, on-chain activity remains robust, and the fundamental case for crypto investments remains intact.”
Zade highlighted long-term factors such as the impending bitcoin halving in 2028 and evolving global regulations as potential catalysts for future rallies, although he acknowledged that “timing is always uncertain.”
At Coinbase, third-quarter earnings exceeded expectations. The exchange reported $1.9 billion in revenue and indicated that its layer-2 network, Base, is now profitable due to higher ETH prices and increased transaction volumes, showcasing ongoing on-chain adoption.
Meanwhile, derivatives positioning indicates that bitcoin traders are preferring income strategies in the $105K–$115K range, according to Wintermute Strategist Jasper De Maere.
“In the coming weeks, markets are likely to remain sensitive to macro data releases — including Fed commentary, inflation statistics, and labor market signals — as well as any conclusion to the ongoing government shutdown,” Bitget’s COO added. “These factors may influence sentiment swings, but they do not change the long-term trajectory.”
Beware of ghouls, and stay vigilant!
What to Watch
For a more exhaustive list of events this week, refer to CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead”.
- Crypto
- Oct. 31: The 17th anniversary of the publication of the Bitcoin white paper by the pseudonymous creator Satoshi Nakamoto.
- Macro
- Oct. 31, 8 a.m.: Brazil Sept. Unemployment Rate Est. 5.5%.
- Oct. 31, 8:30 a.m.: Canada Aug. GDP MoM Est. 0%.
- Earnings (Estimates based on FactSet data)
Token Events
For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead”.
- Governance votes & calls
- No major governance votes or calls.
- Unlocks
- Oct. 31: Immutable (IMX) is set to unlock 1.24% of its circulating supply valued at $13.07 million.
- Oct. 31: is set to unlock 1.71% of its circulating supply valued at $13.79 million.
- Token Launches
Conferences
For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead”.
Token Talk
By Oliver Knight
- The altcoin market is moving into the weekend at a lower level than last week, with ether losing 2.5% at $3,850.
- Numerous tokens breached significant support levels during this time, pulling the average lower. The CoinDesk 80 Index, which measures smaller tokens among the top 100, dropped 3.8%, while the CoinDesk 20 declined by 1.3%.
- Doublezero (2z), plasma , gate token (GT), and , all recorded declines between 15% and 21% after continuing losses on Friday.
- A few tokens defied the trend, especially the popular privacy coin , which rose 5% on Friday, contributing to a weekly gain of 47%.
- The TRUMP memecoin also performed well after news emerged that the organization behind the token intends to acquire fundraising platform Republic. TRUMP increased by 35% over the past week.
- The altcoin market’s outlook now hinges on whether ether can maintain its current support level at $3,700, which has provided three bounces in October.
- A drop below that level would indicate weakness and could signal a macro trend reversal, likely impacting the entire altcoin market.
Derivatives Positioning
- The bitcoin futures market is currently consolidating, with no clear trend emerging.
- Open interest (OI) has slightly decreased to $26.16 billion, though it remains high.
- Funding rates across most platforms are largely unchanged, reflecting low general demand. However, there is some bullish demand being observed on specific platforms, like Deribit, where rates surged to an annualized 8%.
- The three-month annualized basis remains muted in the 4%-5% range, indicating that the basis trade is currently unattractive.
- In options, there is a shift toward short-term neutral-to-bearish sentiment, although a positive structural bias is still maintained. The implied volatility (IV) term structure displays near-term backwardation before transitioning into long-term contango.
- While the one-week 25-delta skew remains positive at 8%, suggesting a premium is still being paid for short-term calls, this conviction is being challenged by the 24-hour put/call volume, which has shifted to 56%-43% in favor of puts, denoting that near-term downside hedging or speculation is currently dominating trading activity.
- Coinglass data reveals $879 million in liquidations within 24 hours, with an 86-14 split between longs and shorts. BTC ($303 million), ETH ($193 million), and others ($79 million) led in terms of notional liquidations. The Binance liquidation heatmap highlights $111,000 as a critical liquidation level to observe, in case of a price uptick.
Market Movements
- BTC is up 2.19% from 4 p.m. ET Thursday at $109,880.54 (24hrs: -0.19%)
- ETH is up 2.4% at $3,846.88 (24hrs: -1.21%)
- CoinDesk 20 is up 2.36% at 3,604.98 (24hrs: -1.68%)
- Ether CESR Composite Staking Rate has risen 9 bps to 2.93%
- BTC funding rate is at 0.004% (4.3526% annualized) on OKX
- DXY is unchanged at 99.53
- Gold futures remain unchanged at $4,013.00
- Silver futures have dipped 0.55% to $48.35
- Nikkei 225 closed up 2.12% at 52,411.34
- Hang Seng closed down 1.43% at 25,906.65
- FTSE has decreased by 0.43% to 9,718.26
- Euro Stoxx 50 is down 0.35% at 5,679.50
- DJIA closed down 0.23% at 47,522.12 on Thursday
- S&P 500 closed down 0.99% at 6,822.34 on Thursday
- Nasdaq Composite closed down 1.57% at 23,581.14 on Thursday
- S&P/TSX Composite closed up 0.11% at 30,178.98
- S&P 40 Latin America closed down 0.99% at 2,999.83
- U.S. 10-Year Treasury rate is up 1 bps to 4.103%
- E-mini S&P 500 futures increased by 0.66% to 6,900.75
- E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures rose by 1.18% to 26,188.75
- E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average Index remains unchanged at 47,683.00
Bitcoin Stats
- BTC Dominance: 59.98% (0.16%)
- Ether to bitcoin ratio: 0.03500 (-0.37%)
- Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 1,138 EH/s
- Hashprice (spot): $44.62
- Total Fees: 2.86 BTC / $311,977
- CME Futures Open Interest: 138,115 BTC
- BTC priced in gold: 26.1 oz
- BTC vs gold market cap: 7.36%
Technical Analysis
- The ETH-BTC one-week rate appears positioned to trade within a given range.
- A rejection occurred at core weekly resistance back in August (around the time of the ether digital-asset treasury trade), and since then, the RSI has been on the decline (not yet neutral).
- It’s likely that ETH-BTC will fluctuate between the existing weekly resistance and support, meaning the risk-return on ether compared to bitcoin is unlikely to be attractive for the time being.
Crypto Equities
- Coinbase Global (COIN): closed on Thursday at $328.51 (-5.77%), +4.83% to $344.38 in pre-market
- Circle Internet (CRCL): closed at $122.71 (-6.85%), +3.24% at $126.68
- Galaxy Digital (GLXY): closed at $34.13 (-6.31%), +2.84% at $35.10
- Bullish (BLSH): closed at $49.95 (-4.98%), +1.18% at $50.54
- MARA Holdings (MARA): closed at $17.76 (-5.93%), +2.65% at $18.23
- Riot Platforms (RIOT): closed at $21.09 (-4.87%), +4.74% at $22.09
- Core Scientific (CORZ): closed at $20.74 (-0.14%), +3.38% at $21.44
- CleanSpark (CLSK): closed at $17.69 (-6.35%), +2.77% at $18.18
- CoinShares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI): closed at $56.71 (-3.31%), +2.50% at $58.13
- Exodus Movement (EXOD): closed at $23.73 (-3.81%), -1.56% at $23.36
Crypto Treasury Companies
- Strategy (MSTR): closed at $254.57 (-7.55%), +6.77% at $271.80
- Semler Scientific (SMLR): closed at $24.61 (-5.29%), +1.89% at $25.08
- SharpLink Gaming (SBET): closed at $12.77 (-6.17%), +3.29% at $13.19
- Upexi (UPXI): closed at $4.26 (-6.17%), +4.46% at $4.45
- Lite Strategy (LITS): closed at $1.95 (-6.25%)
ETF Flows
Spot BTC ETFs
- Daily net flows: -$488.4 million
- Cumulative net flows: $61.34 billion
- Total BTC holdings ~1.35 million
Spot ETH ETFs
- Daily net flows: -$184.2 million
- Cumulative net flows: $14.48 billion
- Total ETH holdings ~6.78 million
Source: Farside Investors
While You Were Sleeping
- China, Canada Leaders Meet First Time Since 2017 to Reset Ties (Bloomberg): On APEC’s sidelines in South Korea, Xi Jinping invited Prime Minister Mark Carney to visit China signaling groundwork for renewed engagement after years of strained ties.
- Riot Platforms Shares Jump Pre-Market After Posting Unexpected Profit on Record Revenue (CoinDesk): Net income was $104.5 million, or 26 cents vs. an expected 12-cent loss, on $180.2 million in revenue. Also, Riot began a 112-megawatt Corsicana, Texas data center buildout.
- Protect Bitcoin Exposure With Ether Shorts: Research Firm (CoinDesk): With Bitmine share issuance slowing and options and search data tilting against ETH, 10x says ether is the weaker leg, making short ETH a hedge for BTC longs.
- ‘HOPIUM’ for Bitcoin Price Bulls (CoinDesk): One ray of hope for BTC is that the 200-week simple moving average is about $54,750, still well below bitcoin’s 2021 peak near $70,000.
- T3 Financial Crime Unit, Backed by Tron, Tether, TRM Labs, Has Now Frozen $300M in Assets (CoinDesk): In its first year, the unit coordinated cross-border seizures with police on five continents, targeting pig-butchering rings and laundering networks, and launched an exchange-led program for real-time freezes.
- Trump’s Vow to Resume Nuclear Tests Leaves Experts Puzzled (The Wall Street Journal): With no details from the White House, even the U.S. nuclear commander nominee can’t say if Trump means underground blasts, low-yield experiments or missile trials, risking renewed testing by rivals.
