According to analysts, Bitcoin might be valued at half the price of gold by its upcoming halving event projected for 2028, with recent increases in gold prices suggesting a potential price of $644,000 for the cryptocurrency in “equivalent value.”
“We’ve been stating that Bitcoin should capture half of gold’s market capitalization after the next halving,” Matthew Sigel, head of digital asset research at VanEck, mentioned in an X post on Monday.
Gold futures recently surged to record highs above $4,000 per ounce due to increased demand from traders, who view gold as a safe haven asset. Sigel noted that this peak price “suggests an equivalent value of $644,000 per [Bitcoin].”
While Bitcoin (BTC) often gets compared to gold, the latter has significantly outperformed the former so far this year, increasing by 50% amid rising political uncertainties, a declining US dollar, and intermittent tariffs.
Young investors favor Bitcoin
According to Sigel, younger investors are increasingly turning to Bitcoin as a store of value, which is typically the primary role for traditional investors who gravitate towards gold.
“Approximately half of gold’s market value is linked to its function as a store of value rather than industrial or jewelry applications. Surveys indicate that younger consumers in emerging markets are progressively favoring Bitcoin for this purpose,” he commented.
Analyst Jordi Visser pointed out in June that younger generations feel the financial landscape “continues to deteriorate each year,” and their demands for increased public spending could simultaneously drive Bitcoin’s value upward.
Gold may have further potential
On another note, veteran trader Peter Brandt indicated that there is still potential for gold to increase in value despite its recent peaks.
“Gold could rise significantly higher before experiencing any substantial correction,” Brandt posted on X Monday. “How much higher? No idea!”
“Yet I am quite convinced that ‘all-in’ FOMO [fear of missing out] buyers at this point will need considerable capital in the future,” he added.
Bitcoin reached a new historical high on Monday, exceeding $126,000 for the first time, though Bitcoin skeptic and staunch gold advocate Peter Schiff pointed out that, despite Bitcoin’s record peak, it remains “about 15% below its all-time high” when valued against gold.
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“Bitcoin would need to rise to around $148K to equal its historical high priced in gold,” he added.
“I still believe it’s premature for Bitcoin enthusiasts to celebrate the rally. Until Bitcoin achieves a new high against gold, this is merely a bear market bounce,” he stated.
Conversely, Joe Consorti, head of growth at Bitcoin custodian Theya, mentioned that Bitcoin’s “fair value floor has been elevated to $1.34 million” following gold’s ascent.
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