Bitcoin’s much-discussed four-year cycle is still unfolding, but the dynamics driving it have shifted from halving events to political influences and liquidity, according to Markus Thielen, head of research at 10x Research.
In an appearance on The Wolf Of All Streets Podcast, Thielen argued that declaring the four-year cycle “broken” overlooks the core issue. He believes the cycle remains valid, but its influences are now increasingly tied to U.S. election timelines, central bank policies, and the capital flow towards risk assets, rather than solely Bitcoin’s programmed supply reductions.
Thielen cited historical market highs in 2013, 2017, and 2021, all occurring in the fourth quarter, aligning more closely with presidential election cycles and broader political instability than with Bitcoin halving events, which have varied over the years.
“There’s this uncertainty regarding whether the incumbent president’s party will lose significant seats. It seems likely now that Trump or the Republicans could lose a substantial number of seats in the House, which may hinder the passage of his agenda,” he remarked.
Related: Bitcoin ‘up year’ is 2026, and the four-year cycle is obsolete
Fed rate cut fails to boost Bitcoin
These comments come as Bitcoin struggles to regain traction following the Federal Reserve’s recent rate cut. Historically, such cuts have favored risk assets, but Thielen points out that the current landscape is atypical. Institutional investors, now the key players in crypto markets, are adopting a more cautious stance due to mixed signals from the Fed and tightening liquidity conditions.
In addition, capital inflows into Bitcoin have decreased compared to the previous year, dampening the upward pressure needed for a robust breakout. Without a notable improvement in liquidity, Thielen anticipates Bitcoin will remain in a consolidation phase rather than enter a new parabolic rally.
This shift also alters how investors should approach timing. Rather than focusing solely on the halving, Thielen suggests market participants pay attention to political catalysts like U.S. elections, fiscal policy discussions, and changes in monetary conditions.
Related: Bitcoin’s 4-year cycle may not be finished after all: Glassnode
Arthur Hayes: Four-year crypto cycle is over
In October, BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes argued that the four-year crypto cycle has ended, not because of waning institutional interest or shifts to Bitcoin’s halving schedule. He stated that traders relying on historical timing models to predict the end of the current bull market are likely mistaken, as those patterns no longer accurately capture market movements.
Hayes claims that Bitcoin cycles have always been driven by global liquidity, rather than arbitrary four-year milestones. Previous bull markets concluded when monetary conditions tightened, especially when liquidity from the U.S. dollar and Chinese yuan decreased. He argued that the significance of the halving has been exaggerated as a causal element instead of being merely coincidental.
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