MicroStrategy (MSTR), the largest corporate holder of bitcoin and historically viewed as a leveraged investment in the crypto space, has experienced a loss of nearly $18 billion in market value as excitement waned and its net asset value (mNAV) premium significantly fell in recent months.
However, the stock might be on the brink of recovery as several crucial catalysts could potentially reverse the bearish trend as early as this week, according to a recent report from 10x Research’s Markus Thielen, who had previously been pessimistic about the stock.
“At the current price, with the NAV premium largely erased, rising volatility, and the possibility of strong Q3 earnings along with renewed speculation about S&P 500 inclusion, we consider Strategy appealing at these levels,” Thielen noted, asserting that the stock may present a better value than bitcoin itself.
The stock’s fall below $280 (which saw another decline of 1.8% on Wednesday) has reduced the market cap to just slightly above the value of the bitcoin held by the company. This is a significant change from late 2024, when speculative premiums drove the stock well beyond its fundamentals, as Thielen remarked.
Although the 40% decrease since July has left sentiment “washed out” and diminished retail interest, Thielen believes that the upcoming earnings report on Thursday could be a turning point.
He anticipates the company will announce a profit of roughly $3.6 billion from mark-to-market gains on its BTC holdings. This profit could reset speculation about a possible S&P 500 index inclusion decision in December — a move Thielen now estimates to have a 60–70% probability.
Inclusion in one of the world’s premier equity indices could result in an influx of up to $28 billion in passive and active fund flows, setting MSTR up for a rally similar to those experienced by Coinbase (COIN) and Robinhood (HOOD) following their inclusion in the S&P 500.
“Capitulation often feels like the conclusion — until it subtly signals the beginning,” Thielen commented.
Read more: Saylor’s Strategy the First Bitcoin Treasury Company Rated by Major Credit Agency
