The crypto market is at a critical juncture as the ETH/BTC pair approaches the vital support zone of 0.032–0.034, igniting heated discussions among analysts regarding the imminent start of the long-anticipated Altseason.
Some experts contend that Bitcoin needs to reach new all-time highs to spark a widespread altcoin rally, while others suggest that Ethereum could independently catalyze the next bullish phase—even without Bitcoin at the helm.
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Bitcoin – The Gatekeeper of the Altseason Signal?
Benjamin Cowen posits that the current phase is merely the “prologue” to broader market growth. He asserts that two crucial conditions must align for Altseason to materialize: Ethereum (ETH) must surpass $5,000 and maintain that level as support.
This suggests that Bitcoin (BTC) also needs to achieve a new all-time high. As BTC ascends to new heights, BTC Dominance (BTC.D) typically increases—reflecting patterns observed in past market cycles.
“The only path to an ‘ALT Season’ is for BTC.D to rise as BTC reaches new highs,” Cowen concluded.
Adding depth to the analysis, AG noted that peaks in BTC Dominance do not necessarily align with Bitcoin’s price highs. Historically, BTC.D often declines roughly 30% from its peak after BTC reaches its ATH, suggesting a similar trend may be unfolding now—indicating that the June 2025 high around 65% BTC.D could represent the cycle top.
According to BeInCrypto, the BTC.D has climbed nearly 59%, while the Altcoin Season Index has dipped below 75. This indicates that altcoins are lagging, raising anxieties regarding a postponed altcoin season. Some analysts have even suggested that the current “altcoin season” is unfolding in publicly traded crypto stocks rather than tokens.
Cowen maintains that Altseason has yet to commence, as ETH faced rejection on its initial attempt to reclaim former highs. ALT/BTC pairs have diminished, while ETH/BTC might be forming a higher low. The forthcoming significant movements for altcoins will largely depend on ETH’s behavior near the $5,000 mark.
However, not all analysts concur that Bitcoin needs to lead the market. Analyst CryptoBullet challenges Cowen’s position, referencing historical data where ETH surged +88% in December 2017 and +79% in April 2021 shortly after Bitcoin reached its peak—demonstrating that Ethereum can drive market momentum independently of Bitcoin’s growth.
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ETH/BTC at Critical Support
Mirroring Cowen’s cautious perspective, analyst Ted highlighted that the market has not officially entered Altseason. Historical evidence shows that the altcoin market cap (excluding stablecoins) is still 20% below its all-time high, suggesting BTC and ETH need to gain stronger momentum before altcoins can follow suit.
Ted also noted several bullish indicators. The ETH/BTC pair is currently testing the 0.032–0.034 support area, a historically crucial level that has prompted substantial rebounds in past cycles.
Another significant macro factor is the indication from the US Federal Reserve. The Fed’s suggestion that it may conclude its Quantitative Tightening (QT) program could instill optimism into risk assets, particularly altcoins, which thrive under improved liquidity circumstances.
On the flip side, analyst FANG has adopted a more bullish outlook. He points out that this signifies the first ETH/BTC uptrend in four years and asserts that “one does not simply fade” such a setup. He posits that $5,000+ ETH is merely a matter of time.
The discussion over the timing of the next Altseason signal continues to create divides among analysts. Yet, despite contrasting opinions, most concur that ETH/BTC is in a pivotal zone that could determine the trajectory of the entire crypto market in the forthcoming months.
