Bitcoin (BTC) begins its first full week of “Uptober” arriving at a new all-time high — what developments will influence BTC price action moving forward?
Bitcoin achieved a new record over the weekend, but traders anticipate some consolidation before aiming for $150,000.
BTC price support retest targets are focused on $118,000 and higher.
Classic bull-market gains may take more time to materialize, according to an AI-driven BTC price forecasting tool.
Macroeconomic signals are expected from Federal Reserve officials this week due to the ongoing US government shutdown.
Crypto market sentiment narrowly avoids “extreme greed” following Bitcoin’s rise to all-time highs.
$150,000 becomes the new BTC price target
Following an extraordinary weekend all-time high, Bitcoin is consolidating around the peak of its historical trading range as the week begins.
Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView indicates that BTC/USD is trading approximately at $124,000.
The commencement of futures trading created a “gap” that was quickly closed — a phenomenon described by popular trader Daan Crypto Trades as a “classic weekend squeeze and retrace.”
“Bitcoin did create a comparatively small gap on the CME futures chart, but it’s not particularly significant,” he commented in a part of an X post.
“A larger gap remains at $110K from last weekend, but I wouldn’t prioritize that until prices are within a few percentage points of it. If this trend continues towards price discovery, significant gaps are usually left open on both the CME chart & liquidity levels.”
According to fellow trader Crypto Tony, BTC price upside targets depend on how it interacts with $123,000.
Weekly closed above $123,000. Now the bulls must sustain this level for ongoing bullish movement. pic.twitter.com/Kn0vJ2dxfL
— Crypto Tony (@CryptoTony__) October 6, 2025
“$BTC has now hit a critical resistance level,” crypto analyst and entrepreneur Ted Pillows noted.
“Yesterday, Bitcoin crossed above this level, but the movement was solely driven by perpetual contracts. If institutional buying resumes like last week, a reclaim is possible.”
Looking at the bigger picture, appetites for higher levels are robust, with Cointelegraph reporting expectations of $150,000 or even above.
Good morning!#Bitcoin‘s new upward momentum is underway, commencing with a new ATH, and the highest weekly close yet.
Next target: $150,000. pic.twitter.com/p5EJqusjDR
— Jelle (@CryptoJelleNL) October 6, 2025
Crypto strategist, analyst, and entrepreneur Michaël van de Poppe suggested that the $150,000 level will follow a consolidation phase.
“I don’t expect #Bitcoin to surge past the ATH all at once. It will take some patience before it continues its upward journey,” he informed X followers on the same day.
“I foresee a correction, and anything below $121.5K is a favorable entry point before we proceed to $150K.”
Bitcoin traders eye a potential 4% drop
As reported by Cointelegraph, market participants continue to anticipate some form of BTC price retracement to occur from record levels.
No bull run ascends in a straight trajectory, and key targets for a support retest are beginning to emerge.
Among these is the 50-period exponential moving average (EMA) on four-hour time frames, currently at $119,250 and rising rapidly.
“For the upcoming week, I believe we might see a 4h50EMA retest – it’s overextended, and previous similar price movements show retests,” popular trader CrypNuevo shared in part of an X thread on Sunday.
“Post that, we should see another upward move. Hence, I’m still leaning towards longs rather than shorts from the 4h50EMA.”
An accompanying chart highlighted the results of interaction with the EMA since early May.
Trader and analyst Rekt Capital argued that it is unrealistic to expect the price to shoot into unexplored territory without first solidifying support at the top of its range.
“It should not be surprising that Bitcoin has faced rejection from ~$124k on the initial attempt in this uptrend. The last time Bitcoin was rejected from $124k, it led to a -13% pullback,” he remarked to X followers over the weekend.
“Bitcoin has to validate that this $124k resistance is losing its rejection power. A smaller dip or pullback from this point would help in that regard.”
Rekt Capital suggested that a 4% drop to meet a rising trend line around $118,000 would still position Bitcoin for further upside later.
“I would prefer not to see the price fall below the $117K-$118K range again. This corresponds to the mid-range and a high volume area,” Daan Crypto Trades, noted in his latest X update on Monday.
“The overall structure appears sound; it simply needs to maintain higher highs and higher lows from this point onward. If it begins ranging between $112K-$124K, it could be detrimental to the longer-term outlook, in my view.”
AI indicates no more Bitcoin “Uptober”
With rising enthusiasm regarding the next phase of the crypto bull run, a new prediction tool may disappoint those wishing for rapid gains.
In one of its “Quicktake” blog posts on Monday, onchain analytics platform CryptoQuant expressed doubt about how “Uptober” may unfold.
“After a notable uptrend, the price has entered a consolidation phase, fluctuating between critical support at 108,000 and resistance at 123,000,” contributor CryptoOnchain summarized.
“This price behavior indicated by technical charts shows signs of a ‘re-accumulation’ phase, during which major market players might be gathering positions for a significant next move.”
BTC/USD set a surprising all-time high over the weekend, yet the monetary outlook for the rest of the month may not align with expectations.
According to CryptoQuant, evidence comes from AI. Its proprietary forecasting tool, NBeats Ensemble, which analyzes data from nearly 400 “onchain features,” currently suggests that the likelihood of an October BTC price breakout is “low.”
“The model’s forecast indicates ongoing fluctuations within the current range. However, there’s a subtle yet crucial detail in this forecast: the model predicts that these fluctuations will mainly occur in the upper half of the range,” the post elaborates.
Bitcoin thus needs several weeks of preparation for a resistance breakout that will transform $123,000 from resistance to support. Holders need to show patience.
“By merging technical analysis with the forecast from the AI model, the most plausible scenario for October 2025 is a continuation of Bitcoin’s neutral, range-bound movements,” CryptoQuant concludes.
“Traders should keep a close eye on the support level at 108,000 and the resistance at 123,000, as a definitive break of either level could determine the upcoming mid-term direction.”
Fed officials to speak as shutdown hinders data
The ongoing US government shutdown adds to the backlog of delayed macroeconomic information this week.
This sets up an intriguing series of appearances from senior Federal Reserve officials, several of whom are expected to present in the coming days.
They include Chair Jerome Powell, who will deliver prerecorded remarks at the Community Bank Conference in Washington. Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman is also scheduled to appear twice at the event.
Powell has faced ongoing pressure from US President Donald Trump to expedite interest-rate reductions — a move the Fed only voted to initiate last month after maintaining rates steady throughout 2025.
The lack of data, particularly regarding the weakening labor market, creates tension — the Fed’s next rate decision is around three weeks away.
“The markets are anticipating the October and December Fed meetings amid the shutdown,” trading resource The Kobeissi Letter summarized in an X thread.
For crypto and risk-asset enthusiasts, favorable conditions persist. The shutdown is expected, according to sources, to remain a “non-event” for the markets, and after six consecutive months of gains for US stocks, doubts about the ongoing upward trend are dwindling.
“The stock market continues to ascend the ‘wall of worry,’ as noted by trading resource Mosaic Asset Company in their latest newsletter, “The Market Mosaic.”
“Despite worries about the health of the labor market and the economic impact of the government shutdown, the S&P 500 is hovering near record highs and has traded above its 50-day moving average for 108 consecutive days.”
Among the potential risks to the strength of the risk-on rally, Mosaic highlighted a potential rebound in US dollar strength, as indicated by the US dollar index (DXY).
The index has struggled to recover after reaching 96.22 in mid-September — its lowest level since February 2022.
Greedy, but not excessively so?
In just ten days, sentiment in the crypto market has dramatically shifted — yet traders have remained composed at all-time highs.
Related: Bitcoin could rapidly reach $150K, doubts about altseason: Hodler’s Digest, Sept. 28 – Oct. 4
The latest data from the Crypto Fear & Greed Index shows that while “greed” currently prevails, overly emotional responses have not yet infiltrated the market.
On Sunday, the Index peaked at local highs of 74/100, stopping just short of the “extreme greed” level, and fell back to 71/100 to begin the week.
These levels still signify a three-fold increase compared to the lows of 26/100 recorded on September 26.
Bitcoin’s previous all-time high in mid-August, for comparison, generated peak Fear & Greed Index readings of 75/100, with the rise to $125,700 thus narrowly forming a divergence with price.
In addition, another sentiment gauge, this one from crypto analytics platform Alphractal, has closely tracked the late September lows and the subsequent uptick.
This is the most precise sentiment analysis metric in the crypto market that I’m aware of.
The Fear and Greed Index adds some noise, but this one captures the sentiment from analysts who influence Bitcoin’s tops and bottoms 😆Chart: @Alphractal https://t.co/slClE3mj1T pic.twitter.com/oFr9kzv4UM
— Joao Wedson (@joao_wedson) October 3, 2025
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
