Ether’s price has surged 25% since the start of August, but historical trends indicate the cryptocurrency may face challenges in September.
Time will reveal if Ether (ETH) behaves differently this year, especially with billions being invested in spot Ether ETFs and treasury firms.
Crypto trader CryptoGoos mentioned in a post on X, “September’s ETH seasonality during post-halving years is usually negative. Will this year be an exception?”
At the time of writing, Ether is priced at $4,759, seeing an increase of approximately $952 from its opening price of $3,807 on August 1, as per CoinMarketCap. The digital asset reached new highs over $4,867 on Friday after remarks from US Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell at the Jackson Hole symposium were interpreted as dovish.
Historical patterns caution against optimism for Ether in September
Powell alluded to a potential interest rate cut in the coming month, which many crypto enthusiasts see as a possible positive signal.
However, historical data calls for caution, as there have only been three occasions since 2016 when Ether gained in August, all followed by declines in September, according to CoinGlass.
In 2017, Ether soared 92.86% in August, only to drop 21.65% the following month.
This trend was repeated in 2020, with a 25.32% rise in August followed by a 17.08% decline in September. Similarly, in 2021, Ether rose 35.62% in August before falling 12.55% in September.
Ether saw gains in the last three months of 2016 and 2020
Interestingly, despite losses in September 2016 and 2020, Ether experienced upward momentum in the subsequent three months during both years.
This September, however, could be different from prior years, given the involvement of spot Ether ETFs and Ether treasury companies that weren’t active during previous August rallies.
On August 11, the cumulative Ether held by companies with crypto treasuries exceeded $13 billion in value, coinciding with the cryptocurrency’s price soaring past $4,300.
On Saturday, blockchain analytics firm Arkham reported that BitMine chairman Tom Lee acquired another $45 million worth of Ether, bringing BitMine’s total holdings to $7 billion.
August marked a significant period for spot Ether ETFs
Meanwhile, spot Ether ETFs saw about $2.79 billion in net inflows just in August, while spot Bitcoin (BTC) ETFs experienced roughly $1.2 billion in net outflows during the same timeframe, according to Farside.
Related: ETH data and returning investor risk appetite pave the way for $5K Ether price
Nate Geraci, president of NovaDius Wealth Management, noted in a Saturday post that there has been a “remarkable change” in the inflows between spot Ether ETFs and spot Bitcoin ETFs.
Additionally, Bitcoin dominance, an indicator of its overall market share, has dropped 5.88% over the past month to 58.19%, which many market observers attribute to capital shifting into the wider crypto market beyond BTC.
Magazine: ETH ‘god candle,’ $6K next? Coinbase fortifies security: Hodler’s Digest, Aug. 17 – 23
