In Summary
- Current leading topics on Myriad’s prediction market cover Satoshi’s fortune and Kanye’s token.
- Predictors are less optimistic about ETH compared to last week, reflecting the asset’s recent downturn.
- However, they are even more pessimistic about Bitcoin’s potential boom for Satoshi and YZY’s prospect of a 50% rise by the month’s end.
Do you strongly believe in the future performance of Kanye West’s Solana-related YZY token? You can share your prediction on Myriad’s market.
Prediction markets are rapidly emerging within the crypto sector, allowing users to invest based on insights across various fields such as politics, pop culture, crypto valuations, sports, and beyond.
Markets fluctuate in real time, enabling predictors to test their insights and earn USDC or points when they are correct.
Leading markets on Myriad this week feature predictions about the YZY token, Satoshi Nakamoto’s wealth, and Ethereum’s next major price threshold.
(Disclaimer: Myriad Markets is a product of Decrypt’s parent organization, DASTAN).
Will YZY market cap exceed $1.5 billion by the end of August?
Market Opening: August 21
Market Closing: August 30
Trade Volume: $3.2K
Link: Access the current odds on the “YZY Market Cap Above $1.5B at the End of August” market on Myriad
Current consensus?
After various teasers and misleading token launches mimicking the real Kanye West meme coin, the renowned artist and designer seemingly unveiled his own token on Wednesday evening.
Developed on Solana, the YZY token is intended to be integrated within West’s brand, offering a concept of “empowerment free from centralized control.”
The token initially surged to over a $3 billion market cap before retracting to about $1 billion. Now, Myriad predictors are evaluating if the token can rebound above $1.5 billion and maintain that status as August concludes.
Initial predictions lean towards “no,” with 87% of Myriad’s predictors expecting the YZY token to not experience a rise.
Presently, the token is valued at a $1 billion market cap, based on DEX Screener, the authoritative source for this market—implying it must exceed a 50% increase to receive a “yes” resolution.
Notably, those speculating on the token’s potential to reach that figure by month-end could witness returns exceeding 500% on Myriad, compared to the 50% profit from holding the token itself.
What Lies Ahead? If Kanye makes additional announcements regarding the token, it might influence its price—positively or negatively.
Is Satoshi Nakamoto’s wealth expected to go beyond $150 billion by the end of September?
Market Opening: August 20
Market Closing: September 28
Trade Volume: $8.42K
Link: Access the current odds on the “Will Satoshi Nakamoto’s Wealth Exceed $150B at the End of September” market on Myriad
Bitcoin has declined 9% since its peak of $124,128, causing a similar decrease in the fortune of its anonymous creator, Satoshi Nakamoto, in just a week.
Myriad predictors are evaluating whether Nakamoto’s wealth—entailing approximately 1.1 million Bitcoin held in wallets associated with the creator—will exceed $150 billion by month-end. This amount is about $25 billion above the current value of $124 billion, according to Arkham Intelligence data, the authoritative resolution source for this market.
To surpass this threshold, Bitcoin (and thus Nakamoto’s wealth) would need an approximate 20% increase from today’s rate to reach a new all-time high of roughly $137,000 per coin.
Predictors are skeptical. As of Thursday morning, they assign only a 10% probability to this occurring as Bitcoin continues to drift away from its recent peak.
Nonetheless, some analysts remain hopeful for significant movements in the leading cryptocurrency, projecting values of $180,000 or higher by year’s end. Will it achieve this, boosting Satoshi’s wealth by the end of September?
What’s on the Horizon? Satoshi’s wealth, closely linked to Bitcoin’s price, is expected to experience volatility as we approach Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s speech on Friday.
Ethereum’s prospective trajectory: Will it rise to $5,000 or fall to $3,500?
Market Opening: August 11
Market Closing: December 30, 2099
Trade Volume: $35.9K
Link: Access the current odds on the “Ethereum’s Next Hit: Will It Reach $5,000 or Drop to $3,500 on Myriad
Ethereum nearly achieved a new all-time high heading towards $5,000 last week but has since retreated to $4,235. This positions ETH right in the center of this Myriad market, which ponders whether Ethereum will hit $5,000 or drop to $3,500 next.
This fluctuation has resulted in a notable shift in odds over the past week, with the likelihood of reaching $5,000 decreasing to 53% as of Thursday. Last week, the odds peaked at 86.4% in favor of $5,000 before Ethereum’s price began to drop, along with the market odds.
The recent decline in ETH’s price coincided with four consecutive days of ETF outflows, following an exceptional period of net inflows that included a record day of over $1 billion on August 11.
Currently, the broader crypto market, alongside Myriad’s prediction market, is adjusting to the uncertainty leading up to Powell’s speech on Friday in Jackson Hole, Wyoming.
Depending on Powell’s statements and potential interest rate adjustments, the market could either “moon or dip,” impacting both price and market odds in various directions.
What’s on the Horizon? Powell’s address is scheduled for Friday.
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