Bitcoin has dipped from Monday’s high, which marked its peak since mid-November. This was the same level the dominant cryptocurrency approached but couldn’t surpass in early December.
While some traders may short this level indicating resistance, others see a potential breakout that might propel prices toward $98,900—a crucial support level between June and November.
Altcoins surged, with SUI gaining over 3% since midnight UTC, contributing to a 24-hour rally of 16%, while XRP continued to shine this year with a 29% rise since January 1.
Memecoin activity has also seen a surge, with trading on Solana-based issuer Pump.fun reaching a record $1.27 billion, signaling engagement from retail investors. The CoinDesk Memecoin Index (CDMEME) increased by 1.5%, bringing its year-to-date gain to 19%.
Derivatives positioning
- Over $400 million in crypto futures has been liquidated in the last 24 hours. Most were shorts, indicating traders entered the New Year expecting price declines.
- BTC’s global futures open interest (OI) remained steady at around 660K BTC over 24 hours, while OI in XRP surged to 2 billion XRP, the highest since October 11, hinting at capital inflows into the XRP market as its price reached multiweek highs.
- Funding rates for major cryptocurrencies remain moderately positive, suggesting a bullish sentiment. Tokens like SOL, TRX, ZEC, SHIB, and UNI have negative rates, reflecting a buildup of bearish short positions.
- Volmex’s BVIV index, which represents the annualized 30-day implied volatility in BTC, reversed Monday’s slight increase from 44% to 47%, suggesting ongoing stability.
- On Deribit, the put bias in BTC and ETH has eased as traders favored upside through calls.
- Block flows predominantly featured BTC and ETH call spreads and BTC strangles.
Token talk
- Memecoins are making a comeback after a challenging year that ended with drawdowns exceeding 95%. This renewed enthusiasm follows daily trading volumes on Pump.fun, the Solana-based token generator, hitting a record $1.27 billion on Monday.
- Activity is noted on BNB Chain as retail traders gravitate towards primarily Chinese-language tokens under the “Four Meme” umbrella, a term introduced by Binance founder Changpeng Zhao.
- Beyond memes, Sui’s native token, , has seen some growth, rising 3% since midnight and 16% over the last 24 hours after Mysten Labs, the developers behind Sui, released a research paper on private crypto transactions, leading to speculation about potential privacy features for Sui’s blockchain.
- CoinMarketCap’s “altcoin season” indicator stands at 27/100, still heavily in “bitcoin season” territory but significantly up from December’s low of 14/100, indicating early signs of sector strength.
- However, there are red flags as the average crypto relative strength index (RSI) signals “overbought,” suggesting several altcoins may face a profit-taking phase soon.
