Analyst: Political Factors, Not Halving, Now Influence Bitcoin’s Four-Year Cycle

The long-discussed four-year cycle of Bitcoin continues to unfold, but its underlying factors have shifted from halving events to political influences and liquidity conditions, according to Markus Thielen, head of research at 10x Research.

During his appearance on The Wolf Of All Streets Podcast, Thielen contended that declaring the four-year cycle “broken” overlooks key aspects. He believes the cycle persists, but is now influenced more by US election schedules, central bank policies, and capital flow into risk assets rather than Bitcoin (BTC)’s programmed supply reductions.

Thielen highlighted historical market peaks in 2013, 2017, and 2021, which all took place in the last quarter of the year. He noted that these peaks align more with presidential election cycles and general political instability than with the timing of Bitcoin halvings, which have varied throughout the years.

“There’s this uncertainty surrounding the current president’s party potentially losing a significant number of seats. I think it’s plausible that Trump or the Republicans could face substantial losses in the House, which may hinder his ability to push his agenda forward,” he stated.

Related: Bitcoin ‘up year’ predicted for 2026, leading to claims the four-year cycle is concluded

Fed rate cut fails to lift Bitcoin

These remarks come as Bitcoin struggles to regain its momentum following the Federal Reserve’s recent rate cut. Historically, rate cuts have been beneficial for risk assets; however, Thielen pointed out that the current environment differs. Institutional investors, now the primary players in crypto markets, are exercising caution due to mixed policy signals from the Fed and tighter liquidity conditions.

Additionally, inflows into Bitcoin have declined compared to last year, reducing the upward pressure necessary for a strong price breakout. Thielen foresees Bitcoin remaining in a consolidation phase, lacking the clear liquidity boost needed to spark a new parabolic rally.

This change also affects how investors perceive timing. Rather than focusing solely on the halving events, Thielen suggested that market participants should monitor political triggers such as US elections, fiscal policy discussions, and changes in monetary conditions.

Related: Bitcoin’s four-year cycle may not be as finished as once thought: Glassnode

Arthur Hayes: Four-year crypto cycle is over

In October, BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes stated that the four-year crypto cycle has concluded, not due to waning institutional interest or changes in Bitcoin’s halving timeline, but because traders relying on historical timing models may be misguided as those patterns no longer align with market movements.