Bitcoin (BTC) kicks off the second week of December trading above $90,000 amidst discussions of a possible “Santa rally.”
Current BTC price action is centered around a significant resistance zone in the low $90,000 range, although traders anticipate another downturn.
The week of the Federal interest-rate decision looms over risk assets, despite a prevalent belief that a rate cut is forthcoming.
The outcome of the Fed’s decision will determine whether a Santa rally for stocks materializes, according to various analyses.
In terms of seasonality, analysis indicates that this year’s “bear market” bottom may parallel that of 2022.
Open interest and leverage remain subdued, potentially signaling a glimmer of hope for bullish traders.
Fibonacci level emerges as critical BTC price floor
Bitcoin’s price volatility has returned as the weekly close approaches — a pattern increasingly observed in recent months.
After a drop to approximately $87,000, BTC/USD achieved a weekly close around the $90,000 level before exhibiting further erratic behavior on shorter time frames, as confirmed by data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView.
Traders are therefore cautious of false moves in either direction.
In his latest thread on X, trader CrypNuevo identifies the 50-day exponential moving average (EMA) as a potential retest target.
“For shorts, I’m anticipating a retest of the 1D50EMA, estimating that it’ll adjust around $95.5k as the range highs,” he predicts.
CrypNuevo noted that Bitcoin lacks a “clear base” for long positions, with the lower $80,000 range still viable.
“Some liquidations are occurring in both directions, though slightly more towards the upside within the $94.5k-$95.3k range. If the price reaches that first, I’ll seek short signals pointing to a potential retest in the low $80’s,” he elaborated alongside exchange order-book liquidity charts.
Crypto trader, analyst, and entrepreneur Michaël van de Poppe expressed more optimism, citing considerable buying pressure among Bitcoin enthusiasts at localized lows.
“Given the intense buying pressure, I expect we’ll break upwards and maintain above $92K in the upcoming days,” he told his followers on X Monday.
“This would result in a rally towards $100K before 2026.”
On the other hand, trader Daan Crypto Trades employed Fibonacci levels to denote bulls’ critical support line, positioned at $84,000, which saw a retest at the beginning of December.
“We are still maintaining that .382 area from the entirety of the bull market thus far,” he wrote in his accompanying analysis.
“I consider this a vital area for bulls to protect. It’s essentially the last major support before we test the April lows again, which would disrupt this high timeframe market structure.”
FOMC week unveils Fed’s challenge on labor market
With minimal US macroeconomic data slated for release this week, the spotlight remains on the Federal Reserve.
On Wednesday, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will convene to determine interest-rate modifications, and markets are anticipating a 0.25% cut.
Recent employment data indicates a decline in the labor market, necessitating a rate reduction. Analysts suggest the Fed is in a bind as inflation continues to pose challenges that would worsen by cutting rates.
“Nonfarm payrolls have now recorded five declines in the last seven months, the worst streak observed in over five years,” trading resource The Kobeissi Letter noted in part of a weekend post on US employment statistics.
“The deterioration of the job market is quickening.”
Analytics firm Mosaic Asset Company presented a more positive outlook, identifying an ideal set of conditions for risk assets.
“With inflation above the target, the economy remaining stable, and the S&P 500 nearing all-time highs, the Fed seems poised for a rate cut for a third consecutive meeting,” it summarized in its latest newsletter, “The Market Mosaic.”
Mosaic opined that “I can’t envision more favorable circumstances to stimulate the stock market than rate cuts along with loosening financial conditions while the economy shows signs of sustained growth, supporting the earnings outlook.”
On the day of the FOMC meeting, markets will look to Fed Chair Jerome Powell for insights into future policy directions as he delivers a speech and responds to press inquiries following the rate announcement.
This past weekend, Kobeissi emphasized Powell’s dismissal of “stagflation” concerns at the May 2024 FOMC press conference as “the day the Fed lost control.”
May 4th, 2024: The day the Fed lost control.
Fed Chair Powell addresses stagflation worries, saying, “I don’t see the stag or the flation.”
18 months later, inflation persists above 3% and the labor market is at its weakest since the pandemic.
Own assets. pic.twitter.com/gpBdXnfH7Y
— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) December 6, 2025
Santa rally discussion includes Fed considerations
As stocks face a promising mix of bullish drivers to conclude the year, crypto commentators are already debating the likelihood of the “Santa rally” impacting the crypto market.
The Santa rally is real, but the timing varies greatly.
Will we see a Santa rally this year? 👇 pic.twitter.com/YnsAjXqBbx
— Mister Crypto (@misterrcrypto) December 6, 2025
Cointelegraph noted that the crypto market has significantly lagged behind stocks in Q4, with the S&P 500 nearing new all-time highs.
Network economist Timothy Peterson observed that typically, year-end tends to favor Bitcoin.
Conversely, Joao Wedson, founder and CEO of crypto analytics platform Alphractal, countered by stating that BTC/USD is likely to have a “sideways” conclusion to 2025.
“Each year, Bitcoin averages 170 days in negative territory,” Wedson elaborated along with a chart of cumulative negative BTC price trading days.
“In 2025, it has already seen 171 negative days, which strongly implies that this year will likely end in a sideways price range. If a deeper decline is forthcoming, it will most likely occur in 2026.”
Earlier, Cointelegraph reported that the outcome of the Santa rally remains contingent on the Federal Reserve’s actions.
“The decline in the S&P 500 from late October into November coincided with diminishing probabilities of another rate cut this month. Recent remarks from prominent Fed officials have heightened expectations for a cut, revitalizing the stock market,” Mosaic Asset Company concurred.
Is $89,000 the new $16,000 for Bitcoin?
Regarding Bitcoin price patterns and seasonal trends, recent data reinforces bullish sentiment regarding the future.
Uploaded to X this past weekend by Peterson, a comparison of BTC/USD from this year and the 2022-23 period indicates that a long-term price bottom may be either established or approaching.
At the end of 2022, Bitcoin recorded a multiyear low of $15,600 following a harsh bear market that resulted in an 80% decline relative to previous all-time highs.
Its recovery commenced at the start of 2023, and if historical trends repeat, holders may only have a few weeks left before experiencing upward momentum again.
“$89,000 represents the new $16,000,” Peterson summed up.
As noted by Cointelegraph, comparisons to 2022 have surged since October when Bitcoin abruptly transitioned from a series of new all-time highs to a 36% plunge over six weeks.
In late November, Peterson stated that the price correlation with 2022 had reached 98% on monthly time frames.
Open interest indicates Bitcoin “apathy”
An encouraging signal from Bitcoin derivatives markets keeps the potential for a market rally alive.
Related: Bitcoin profit metric approaches 2-year lows in ‘complete reset:’ BTC analysis
New insights from the onchain analytics platform CryptoQuant reveal that open interest (OI) across Bitcoin exchanges has fallen to its lowest levels since April when BTC/USD hovered around $75,000.
“This decline typically indicates two possibilities: 1) investor capitulation, or 2) investor apathy,” contributor COINDREAM noted in one of CryptoQuant’s “Quicktake” blog entries on Monday.
“Historically, periods of apathy and low participation have often been precursors to attractive buy-the-dip opportunities.”
COINDREAM indicated that despite a modest rebound in BTC price from recent lows of $80,500, traders have shown reluctance to employ leverage.
“Excessive leverage often hinders market direction. However, with recent price recoveries, leverage levels have normalized, reducing systemic risks,” it added.
CryptoQuant’s estimated leverage ratio, which compares OI to BTC reserves, has seen a notable decline since mid-November.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
