Bitcoin has faced challenges in keeping a consistent correlation with Gold, only tending to align during market dips. However, analyzing Bitcoin’s price behavior from the perspective of Gold instead of USD provides a clearer understanding of the current market cycle. By evaluating Bitcoin’s real purchasing power against similar assets, we can pinpoint potential support zones and assess whether the bear market is nearing its end.
Bitcoin Bear Market Officially Starts Below Critical Support
Breaking below the 350-day moving average around $100,000 and the pivotal psychological six-figure threshold marked the effective shift into bear market territory, prompting Bitcoin to drop roughly 20% right after. From a technical standpoint, trading beneath The Golden Ratio Multiplier moving average has historically indicated the onset of a bear cycle for Bitcoin, though the discussion becomes more compelling when viewed against Gold rather than USD.
The Bitcoin-to-Gold chart presents a distinctly different narrative compared to the USD chart. Bitcoin hit its peak in December 2024 and has since retraced over 50% from that high, while the USD valuation peaked in October 2025, significantly lower than the highs of the previous year. This disconnect implies that Bitcoin’s bear market may have lasted much longer than most analysts perceive. By examining historical Bitcoin bear cycles in Gold terms, we can discern patterns that indicate that the current decline is nearing critical support levels.
The 2015 bear cycle recorded an 86% retracement lasting 406 days. The 2017 cycle saw a decline of 84% over 364 days. The prior bear cycle produced a drawdown of 76% over 399 days. As of this analysis, Bitcoin is down 51% in 350 days when compared to Gold. While percentage declines have been less severe as Bitcoin’s market cap expands and more capital enters the market, this trend reflects growing institutional adoption and a shrinking Bitcoin supply rather than a fundamental shift in cycle dynamics.
Multi-Cycle Confluence Indicates Bitcoin Bear Market Bottom is Near
Instead of focusing solely on percentage retracements or elapsed time, utilizing Fibonacci retracement levels across various cycles offers enhanced accuracy. Applying a Fibonacci tool from the lowest to highest points across historical cycles uncovers striking levels of convergence.
In the cycle from 2015 to 2018, the bear market’s bottom was at the 0.618 Fibonacci level, correlating to about 2.56 ounces of Gold per Bitcoin. The ensuing price movement marked this bottom with striking clarity, much clearer than the corresponding USD graph. In the following 2018-2022 cycle, the bear market low aligned almost identically with the 0.5 level, at around 9.74 ounces of Gold per Bitcoin. This level later transitioned from resistance to support during the subsequent bull run.
Translating Bitcoin Bear Market Gold Ratios Back into USD Price Goals
From the previous bear market low to the present bull market peak, the 0.618 Fibonacci level stands at approximately 22.81 ounces of Gold per Bitcoin, while the 0.5 level is at 19.07 ounces. Current trading is near the midpoint of these two levels, indicating a potentially favorable accumulation area from a purchasing power perspective.
A range of Fibonacci levels from various cycles adds further confluence. The 0.786 level from this current cycle equates to roughly 21.05 ounces of Gold, translating to a Bitcoin price of about $89,160. The previous cycle’s 0.618 level aligns near $80,000. These convergence points imply that should Bitcoin experience further declines, the next significant technical target could hover around $67,000, determined from the 0.382 Fibonacci level, which corresponds to about 15.95 ounces of Gold per Bitcoin.
Conclusion: The Bitcoin Bear Market Might Already Be 90% Concluded
Bitcoin has likely been in a bear market for a considerably extended period, far beyond what USD-only analyses imply, with purchasing power already substantially decreasing since December 2024 when assessed against Gold and similar assets. Historical Fibonacci retracement levels, carefully calibrated across multiple cycles and reverted to USD terms, indicate potential support around the $67,000 to $80,000 range. Although this analysis is inherently theoretical and may not unfold with absolute accuracy, the convergence of various data points across different timescales and valuation frameworks implies that the bear market may be nearing its end sooner than many expect.
For a deeper exploration of this subject, check out our latest YouTube video here: Proof This Bitcoin Bear Market May Be OVER Already
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Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and should not be interpreted as financial advice. Always conduct your own research before making investment decisions.
